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Wednesday, 17 July, 2002, 11:06 GMT 12:06 UK
Saddam's twin-track strategy
Iraqi President Saddam Hussein
Saddam Hussein: Policy of divide and defend

Saddam Hussein's speech - made on the 34th anniversary of the revolution in July 1968 which brought the Baath Party to power - is one half of what appears to be a twin-track policy.

On the one hand, he is as aggressive as ever towards the United States and its "lackeys."


The foreigner will not let the Arab world heal its wounds

Saddam Hussein
But in a separate and rare interview published at the same time in newspapers across the Arab world, he is much more conciliatory to his Arab neighbours.

He says that "the foreigner will not let the (Arab) nation heal its wounds and rise above its differences".

His aim seems to be to undermine the will of other Arab countries to support any American-led action against Iraq.

Divide and defend

It is a policy of divide and defend - by dividing his opponents, he makes the defence of Iraq easier.

US President George W Bush
Saddam Hussein was aggressive towards the US and its "lackeys"
But it also shows up one of his weaknesses - his isolation.

There is some evidence that he is having some success with Syria, which joined in the Gulf War against Saddam in 1991 but which now is the subject of US criticism in the war on terror.

The London-based newspaper Al-Arab al-Alamiyah said on 16 July that "informed political observers have pointed to the Syrian government's increasing wish to boost its distinguished relations with Iraq."

"Analysts believe that decision makers in Syria are certain now of the US administration's evil intentions not only towards Baghdad but also with regard to Syria," the newspaper said.

Entrenched attitudes

A look at the language of the speech and the interview indicate how deeply entrenched the Iraqi leader's attitudes are and how he is trying to rally Arab opinion to his side.

Syria's Bashar al-Assad
Bashar al-Assad: Iraq is reportedly making overtures to Syria
His speech recalls the spirit of the July (Temmuz) revolution. "Temmuz returns armed with its sword, its bow and spear, carrying its shield or gun and cannon, mounting its tank, or poised in its battle trench... Temmuz returns to say to all evil tyrants and oppressors of the world. You will never defeat me this time. Never!"

There is another passage: "The wind will blow away foreign rattling as the noise of an evil covetous tyrant, the enemy of Allah... Iraq will emerge eventually triumphant".

That is the message for the United States.

Hint of weakness?

Another section of his speech should not be overlooked. He himself calls it "the most important part of what I wanted to say in this address".


Iraq will emerge eventually triumphant

Saddam Hussein
This is a criticism of those who are fainthearted. "There appears a degree of laxity in the energy, vision and activities of those in charge, whether they have been tempted by the lures of life ..or the difficulties of the road and the ferocity and forceful impact of counter factors".

The implication of this rallying call is that he himself has not been subject to the "lures" of life and that he is as strong as before. But is he also hinting at weaknesses within his regime? He did not elaborate in this passage.

Signal to Arab world

The interview given to the Arab papers is important for two reasons - because it is so unusual and for the signal it sent.

He declares that he wants to "turn a new leaf in the history of inter-Arab relations". He even mentions Kuwait, saying that "the closer we came to settling our relations with Kuwait, the more the forces of evil hampered this rapprochement".

He warns his Arab colleagues that, "the whole Arab nation is a target".

This is not the battle of Iraq but of the whole Arab nation," he says.

And he also blames divisions within the Arab world. "The problem with our nation is that while its enemies face it as one nation, Arab rulers do not face the enemies the same way".

The picture that emerges is one of the traditional Saddam Hussein standing his ground but also of the tactical Saddam Hussein, working to out-manoeuvre his opponents.

 WATCH/LISTEN
 ON THIS STORY
The BBC's Kim Ghattas
"He indirectly warned Arab countries not to line up behind the US"
Scott Ritter, former UN weapons inspector
"They do not have the capabilities Bush and Blair say they have"

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17 Jun 02 | Middle East
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