BBC News | MIDDLE EAST | Analysis: Sharon's options

By Frank Gardner in Jerusalem

Israeli troops have deployed in strength in the West Bank, ostensibly to deter further violence.

The move follows a bloody two days in Israel and the Palestinian territories.

This week has seen a Palestinian suicide bomber kill himself and two Israelis, an assassination by Israel of Hamas militants, and the firing of mortars against Israelis in the West Bank for the first time since this 10-month-long bout of violence began.

The so-called ceasefire is dead in all but name. So what comes next?

Wait-and-see policy

In the immediate future, Israel is likely to adopt a wait-and-see policy, hoping this show of strength will intimidate the Palestinians into stopping their attacks on Israelis. It will not.

A Palestinian boy holds a toy gun
Mid-East violence is likely to continue
Ten months of violence and more than 50 years of Arab bitterness will ensure that there will always be a hard core of Palestinian militants prepared to defy orders and risk death in order to kill Israelis.

Arabs all over the Middle East have said it, time and time again: as long as Israel occupies Arab land there will never be lasting peace.

So, given that the violence is likely to continue, Israel's Prime Minister Ariel Sharon essentially has three choices.

He can tough it out, responding with limited force to each attack on Israelis, making life uncomfortable for the Palestinians while trying to keep Israeli casualties to a minimum.

This is the most likely option for now, but a major new attack on Israelis could prompt Israel to change its policy.

He can take drastic action, either striking hard at the Palestinian Authority's power base or sending in his troops to reoccupy Palestinian-controlled areas, effectively tearing up the eight-year-old Oslo peace accords.

It could be a limited in-and-out operation, but it could also trigger the collapse of the Palestinian Authority, driving the leadership into exile and drawing international condemnation.

He can bow to international and Arab pressure and begin substantive talks with the Palestinian leadership about a future peace deal. This would take some of the pressure off Yasser Arafat and give him an incentive to restrain Palestinian militants.

But it would also be a reversal of Mr Sharon's avowed policy never to negotiate under fire and Israeli right-wingers would condemn it as weakness.

Unlikely peace

None of these scenarios is likely to lead to the longed-for solution to the Middle East conflict: a balanced, lasting peace deal that satisfies all sides.

Israeli soldier and Orthodox Jew in front of cement block barriers in Gilo
Israel is likely to adopt a wait-and-see policy in the near future
Ariel Sharon has already indicated he is not prepared to offer the Palestinians nearly as much land as his predecessor Ehud Barak did.

Yasser Arafat is still sticking to his demand for the right of Palestinian refugees to return to their original homes in Israel.

Both positions are unacceptable to the other side.

Perhaps Ehud Barak was right last week, when he said the Middle East may have to wait for a new generation of leaders before a peace deal can be reached.


		^^ Back to top News Front Page \| World \| UK \| UK Politics \| Business \| Sci/Tech \| Health \| Education \| Entertainment \| Talking Point \| In Depth \| AudioVideo ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- To BBC Sport>> \| To BBC Weather>> ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- © MMIII\|News Sources\|Privacy