The south east Asian bird flu outbreak may lead to a pandemic

Q: Why are the experts concerned?

History suggests a flu pandemic is just around the corner. During the last century there were three serious outbreaks.

The first in 1918, dubbed the Spanish flu, killed up to 50m across the world, including 228,000 in the UK.

Asian flu followed in 1957, claiming 1m victims and Hong Kong flu struck in 1968, again killing 1m.

Q: Where is the next outbreak likely to start?

All eyes are focused on south east Asian where a deadly Avian flu has killed 32 of the 45 humans who have been infected since 1997.

Humans catch the disease through close contact with live infected birds. Birds excrete the virus in their faeces, which dries and becomes pulverised, and is then inhaled.

Symptoms are similar to other types of flu - fever, malaise, sore throats and coughs. People can also develop conjunctivitis.

To date the virus has been contained by mass culling of birds.

But there is a concern the flu strain could mutate with the human flu, allowing it to be passed from human to human and starting a pandemic.

Q: Is there a treatment available?

As the flu has not materialised yet there is no vaccine and it would be months after the start of an outbreak before one could be made.

However, there are antiviral drugs available, which limit the symptoms and as a result lessen the chances of the spread of the disease.

The drugs work by blocking the action of a protein called neuraminidase, which the virus uses to infect human cells.

The drugs, which are available on prescription, can either be taken when a person starts experiencing symptoms or, before that, after contact with people infected by the virus.

Q: What is happening in the UK?

The government is drawing up an Influenza Pandemic Contingency Plan, which should be ready in the spring.

It could recommend people be prevented from gathering together in large numbers, including at football matches and pop concerts.

People may be told to stay in their homes to prevent the spread of the flu.

Under current emergency planning, local agencies, such as strategic health authorities and councils take the lead with dealing with disasters.

However, the nature and scale of a flu outbreak would mean the Department of Health and Health Protection Agency (HPA) would take control on a strategic level to make sure the NHS was not overwhelmed.

HPA officials would help doctors with the screening and tracing of the virus.