Hopes curtailed for US-Georgia visit

Former US President George W Bush gained hero-status after visiting Georgia

By Tom Esslemont BBC News, Tbilisi

US visitors have a habit of leaving their mark on Tbilisi.

After the visit of President George W Bush to the Georgian capital in May 2005, the government named a motorway after him.

The only way forward is to keep putting pressure on [Russia] in every forum and on every occasion and we hope that the United States will continue to do that Giga Bokeria Georgian Deputy Foreign Minister Georgia president unveils reforms

After landing at Tbilisi airport on Wednesday evening, Vice-President Joe Biden made the 20-minute journey along the highway named after the former Republican president, who christened Tbilisi a "beacon of liberty".

He drove past a giant poster of a smiling Mr Bush - it is a reminder of the hero-status the Texan gained here for the political and financial support his administration provided to this post-Soviet state.

But since the arrival of the Obama administration, President Mikhail Saakashvili's government has been wary that US support could dwindle.

Specifically, it has been worried that its precious relations with Washington could be squandered for the sake of America's renewed - "reset" - partnership with Russia.

'Unconditional support'

Many of those fears evaporated during President Barack Obama's speech to the New Economic School in Moscow on 7 July.

Georgia was worried by US attempts to rebuild relations with Russia

"State sovereignty must be a cornerstone of international order," he said.

Then he made a direct reference to Georgia and Ukraine, two countries which Russia still believes fall into its sphere of influence.

"Any system that cedes those rights will lead to anarchy. That is why this principle must apply to all nations - including Georgia and Ukraine."

Mr Obama's words were like music to Mr Saakashvili's ears.

"Unconditional support" for Georgia's sovereignty can only be good news to a president for whom last summer's war was a disaster.

Thousands of Russian troops now occupy the disputed regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, territories Georgia sees as part of its sovereign state.

That is why Mr Obama's words were so well received in Georgia. Though what they mean in practice is harder to fathom.

'Unrealistic aspirations'

Vice-President Biden is visiting Tbilisi to reiterate the message of US support for Georgia.

I think over the next few years even the more enthusiastic supporters of Nato membership here are going to realise that this is not going to happen Lawrence Sheets International Crisis Group

But what concrete results, if any, can Georgia expect? Fast track Nato membership? The provision of military equipment? US police patrols?

All have been mooted by Georgia, but taking each one in turn, none seems likely.

"It is far from certain that Georgia will gain Nato membership at any time in the near future", says Lawrence Sheets, Caucasus project director at the International Crisis Group (ICG).

"I think over the next few years even the more enthusiastic supporters of Nato membership here are going to realise that this is not going to happen."

The USS Stout recently held training drills in the Black Sea port of Batumi

Little military hardware has been given to Georgia by the US, though US military training is under way.

Just last week, US Navy sailors on board the USS Stout held training drills in the Black Sea port of Batumi with members of Georgia's coastguard.

"The training exercises are aimed at improving co-operation between two nations," the USS Stout's Commander Mark Oberley said.

Delicate balance

Such visits have become routine and some analysts now say that Georgia wants to get the US to publicly declare that it will help provide security along its borders.

One government official told me that Georgia wants the US to commit police officers to a revamped European Union monitoring mission, whose civilian observers currently patrol Georgia's boundaries with South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

There is no doubting that Mr Biden will receive a warm welcome in Tbilisi

This is reportedly being considered by the EU, but it is not on any agenda just yet.

"The only way forward is to keep putting pressure on [Russia] in every forum and on every occasion and we hope that the United States will continue to do that together with our European allies," Georgia's Deputy Foreign Minister, Giga Bokeria, told me.

But if the issue of Nato membership for Georgia (and Ukraine) is now on the backburner, as it appears to be, then the Americans have to find a delicate balance.

"The United States must now walk a fine line between lending enthusiastic support for Nato membership and actually stating that it will not happen," says Masha Lipman, an analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Centre.

There is no doubting that Mr Biden will receive a warm welcome in Tbilisi. But it might be some time before Georgia's demands are fully satisfied.

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