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Last Updated: Friday, 10 June, 2005, 21:48 GMT 22:48 UK
Germany 'chokes' on the euro

By Ray Furlong
BBC News, Berlin

A recent cover of Stern magazine showed the German eagle, struggling for breath, with a euro coin stuck in its gullet.

European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt/Main, Germany
A recent poll found 56% of Germans want the Deutschmark back

The message was clear -the German economy was suffering because of Europe's single currency.

The cover story came as Italy's Welfare Minister Roberto Maroni suggested that reintroducing the Lira would help his country's struggling economy - and reported that Germany was considering the same step.

The reaction from German Finance Minister Hans Eichel was swift.

"There has been no debate in this house about a break-up of monetary union," he said. "There is no basis for such a debate."

The Stern story was based on a meeting that Mr Eichel held with Axel Weber, the president of the Bundesbank, and representatives of two leading private banks, Morgan Stanley and Deutschebank.

The euro is under strain, for a number of reasons
Thomas Mayer
Deutschebank Chief Europe Economist

It seems that, actually, problems facing the eurozone were discussed.

"The euro is under strain, for a number of reasons," says Deutschebank chief Europe economist Thomas Mayer, who was at the meeting.

"Initially, one hoped the euro would be backed by fiscal discipline, enforced by the Stability and Growth Pact, and more political integration. None of these conditions are in place."

Body blow

The Stability Pact limits eurozone countries' debt levels, but critics say it has been watered down after Germany and France have repeatedly breached it.

Likewise, the recent no votes in the French and Dutch referendums on the EU constitution are seen by many as having dealt a body blow to political union.

Ninety percent of people will tell you the euro led to permanent hikes in prices
Lutz Erbring
Berlin's Free University.

But still, Thomas Mayer says the demise of the euro is not imminent.

"This is an extremely unlikely event. If it could happen at all, then only in the very distant future in the context of major political changes in Europe - which is something you can never rule out."

The controversy over the alleged discussion about post-euro scenarios came as an opinion poll showed that 56% of Germans want the Deutschmark back.

For many ordinary Germans, the euro remains an unloved currency.

"Ninety percent of people will tell you the euro led to permanent hikes in prices," says Lutz Erbring from Berlin's Free University.

"You can always find examples where something really got more expensive: hairdressers doubled their prices maybe. But then the price of computers went down. It's a mixed picture."

Important economy

The economic argument is that the euro gives Germany higher than necessary interest rates.

Germany cannot decide by itself to reduce them, so it is stuck with one-size-fits-all rates that must balance the needs of booming Spain with an Italy that could be sliding into recession.

But Alfred Steinherr, analyst at the German Economic Institute and former chief economist at the European Investment Bank, dismisses this.

"The Bundesbank always had a policy of stabilising prices - which was very successful, but also slowed growth," he says.

"Over the last 50 years Germany has had a lower average growth rate than both Italy and France, the so-called unstable Latin countries. So in this sense, I think we are not worse off than before."

Germany's rekindled debate on the euro has not gone as far as Italy's, and in reality a German pull-out is unthinkable.

But because Germany is the eurozone's most important economy, any doubts raised about the currency here are closely watched - as a sign of the euro's general health.




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