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Last Updated: Tuesday, 22 June, 2004, 13:31 GMT 14:31 UK
Kremlin's Caucasus headache

By Stephen Dalziel
BBC Russian Affairs analyst

Government-backed fighters in Chechnya [file picture]
Russia's response to the trouble has been to send in more troops
The attack on targets in Ingushetia, apparently by Chechen rebels, has raised serious questions once again over the conflict in Russia's Caucasus region.

In Chechnya itself, Russian security forces are frequently under fire, despite talk of the situation in and around Chechnya becoming "normal".

And these latest incidents will raise concerns once again that, far from calming down, the conflict could spread to other parts of the Caucasus.

This was the most serious violence outside the boundaries of Chechnya since Russian forces were sent back into the troubled republic in September 1999.

Moscow's approach has meant that moderates have been pushed into the camp of the extremists

One of the incidents which led to that decision being taken by the then Russian Prime Minister, Vladimir Putin, were raids in August of that year by Chechen militants into the republic to the east of Chechnya, Dagestan.

So how can Russia respond now? The knee-jerk reaction by the Russian Defence Minister, Sergei Ivanov, was to send more troops to the region.

Uncompromising stance

This has been the standard Russian response to an upturn in violence from the side of the rebels.

But the defence and interior ministries - and the political leadership in the Kremlin - seem to be at a loss to come up with any fresh solutions to the conflict.

Ahmad Kadyrov (in hat) flanked by other top officials including regional commander Gen Valery Baranov (left)
Kadyrov was assassinated at a WWII Soviet victory parade in May
By its brutal use of force in Chechnya, and its uncompromising political stance, Moscow has managed to alienate all voices of reason in Chechnya.

Moscow's approach has meant that moderates have been pushed into the camp of the extremists.

The only Chechens with whom Moscow has had any dealings are those who are totally loyal to the Kremlin.

But as the recent assassination of the Chechen President, Akhmad Kadyrov, showed, these Chechens do not command mass support.

Aslan Maskhadov, who was elected President of Chechnya in 1997 elections which Moscow recognised as valid, is now simply branded "a terrorist" by Moscow.

His travelling envoy, Akhmed Zakayev, has been hounded by the Russian authorities.

After the failure of two extradition attempts, from Denmark and Britain, Moscow has now called for Norway to extradite Mr Zakayev.

Yet Mr Zakayev's tone has changed significantly in the past two years, with less talk of Chechen "independence" from Russia.

Historic parallels

This alienation of Chechen voices of reason has led to increasing talk of the fight in the Caucasus being a struggle for the establishment of an Islamic regime.

Terrified witnesses of the raids into Ingushetia spoke of the attackers crying, "Allah akbar!" ("God is great!")

The rebels seem also to want to draw historical parallels.

When Mr Kadyrov was assassinated in May, it was at a parade marking the Soviet victory in World War II.

The Ingush raids coincides with the anniversary of the German invasion of the USSR in 1941.




BBC NEWS: VIDEO AND AUDIO
The BBC's Jonathan Charles
"Russia claims some of the rebel groups are in the hands of Islamic fundamentalists, with links to al-Qaeda"



SEE ALSO:
Caucasus attack kills five
30 Jul 03 |  Europe
Q&A: The Chechen conflict
09 May 04 |  Europe


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