By Clare Murphy BBC News Online

Raffarin's walk into history may still happen this year

As it became clear that the French government had suffered a humiliating rout in weekend elections, the speculation mounted that the first head to roll would be that of Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin.

Mr Raffarin was a little-known senator in 2002 when the freshly re-elected Mr Chirac called on his reputation as a grassroots politician with public relations savvy to rally the right and lead France through a period of economic overhaul as the new French prime minister.

But judging by the results of Sunday's vote, for all his PR expertise, Mr Raffarin has failed to sell his government's reforms to the French people.

Many voters have taken to the streets in the past two years to protest against the changes he has overseen to the pension system and employment law.

"Reforms are absolutely necessary. But the French voters clearly believe there are various types of reforms," says political analyst Florence Faucher-King. "And the ultra-liberal reforms which Mr Raffarin has been implementing are not what the French voters want."

Mr Raffarin tendered his resignation on Tuesday. Mr Chirac accepted it - but then - contrary to the expectations of many - immediately reappointed him to lead a new team.

Social gloss

Mr Chirac's decision to keep Mr Raffarin on board suggests that the beleaguered prime minister's role as a potential scapegoat for the government's ills may not yet be exhausted.

A wave of controversial new reform programmes is already scheduled for the months ahead, and the prime minister could also take the flak should the right fare badly at European elections in June.

Any new prime minister would be asked to tackle the financially crippled health service over the coming months, a task which many observers believe would amount to a poisoned chalice.

Several names had been floated as possible successors, but with little conviction: Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin, the diplomat who shone during France's campaign against the Iraq war, is seen as lacking the popular touch; the same goes for another potential candidate, Defence Minister Michele Alliot-Marie.

The government's reform plans sparked mass strikes

The most obvious choice would have been the popular and charismatic interior minister, Nicolas Sarkozy, seen as the man most capable of reviving the flagging fortunes of the right.

Yet it is precisely these credentials, observers say, which make him an unlikely choice by Mr Chirac, who may be wary of handing the ambitious ex-lawyer a job that would pave his way to the presidency.

Guillaume Tabard, an analyst for the right-wing newspaper Le Figaro, correctly predicted that Mr Raffarin would stay put, at least for the immediate future.

"With Sarkozy, the right would keep its hold on power, but for Jacques Chirac, the troubles would begin," he says.

Keeping Mr Raffarin makes it all the more likely that his new-look cabinet will place a fresh emphasis on social issues.

Those believed to be most vulnerable to ousting are Education Minister Luc Ferry, Finance Minister Francis Mer and Health Minister Jean-Francois Mattei, whose department was blamed for 15,000 deaths, mostly of the elderly, during a heatwave last year.

The new cabinet could see the popular urban affairs minister Jean-Louis Borloo promoted to head a new ministry for "social cohesion and integration", a move aimed at wooing back those voters who jumped from right to left last weekend.

Stuck in the middle

As for the politics, Mr Chirac must decide whether the policies themselves need an overhaul, or whether a quick makeover will suffice.

Members of his right-wing UMP party hopes he sticks the course.

"Obviously there needs to be better explanation, but we need to continue with our policy of reform," says Herve Mariton.

"Probably there needs to be greater emphasis on the social aspects, but we are not going to abandon our idea of reforming French society - that's why we were elected."

Mr Raffarin, who himself declared after Sunday's defeat that changes were needed, has been seeking to reduce a widening budget deficit - which has for two years running exceeded the EU's 3% limit.

The health-care reform measures which are due to be launched this year are seen as key to the deficit reduction efforts.

The social security system, currently running on a massive deficit, is also in line for major reform, while in the public sector, the government had hoped to shed thousands of jobs by simply not replacing people after they retired.

If it fails to implement the measures deemed necessary, Mr Chirac's UMP may not have much to show its voters when the government lays out its record for the 2007 elections.