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Last Updated: Monday, 29 December, 2003, 12:03 GMT
Coalition challenge for Serb reformers

By Matthew Price
BBC, Belgrade

The extreme nationalist Serbian Radical Party won the largest number of seats in Serbia's parliamentary election, but it is thought it will be unable to form the next government.

So the focus of attention in Serbia has shifted to the main reform-minded parties.

It's not nice but it's not tragic either
Serbian politician
There is a sense that people feel let down by these parties, which overthrew President Milosevic in October 2000.

Economic reforms have failed to benefit the majority while political infighting among the parties has annoyed many voters.

This provided fertile ground for the two nationalist parties.

"It's not nice" one politician told me, "but it's not tragic either" - though there are those who feel it could become a tragedy.

Patchwork

What needs to happen now is for a democratic coalition to be created that could then form a government.

Vojislav Kostunica
Vojislav Kostunica: The man holding the key
The man holding the key at the moment appears to be the former Yugoslav President, Vojislav Kostunica who heads the moderate nationalist Democratic Party of Serbia.

It is the second largest party following the election.

He will need to join forces with other reformist parties - and this is where the problems start.

Mr Kostunica fell out with these parties during the life of the last parliament, and before the election he pledged not to form a coalition with one of the parties he now probably needs to make up the numbers.

Many wonder if the differences can be patched up.

If not the political infighting which characterised the last parliament will continue.

And as it seems to have done in this election, that will only serve to benefit the more nationalist parties.

Rhetoric of 'humiliation'

Two of these, run by men charged with war crimes - among them Slobodan Milosevic - will between them hold 40% of the seats in parliament.

PREDICTED RESULTS
Serbian Radical Party - 27.7% of vote; 82 seats
Democratic Party of Serbia - 18.0%; 53 seats
Democratic Party - 12.6%; 37 seats
G-17 Plus - 11.7%; 34 seats
Serbian Renewal Movement-New Serbia - 7.7%; 23 seats
Socialist Party of Serbia - 7.4%; 21 seats
Source: Centre for Free Election and Democracy, margin of error 0.4%
They are now strong enough to block government programmes with ease if they wish.

Analysts here say their success does not indicate a swing to the nationalism of the past - it is more an illustration that these two parties can still rely on their core voters.

The Radical Party's rhetoric, based on a new kind of nationalism emphasising the word "humiliation" resonates well in Serbia.

Many Serbs feel discriminated against over the years.

Many Serbs feel, for instance, that the war crimes tribunal in The Hague is an anti-Serb institution - they point to the fact that many more Serbs have been indicted at The Hague than have Croats and Bosnians.

And then they point to the fact that now, under the economic reforms pursued in the last few years, many Serbian companies are being sold off - as they see it - to the West.

They simply do not like this. Many people feel that this country is theirs, they are proud of it, and they feel that the world misunderstands them.




SEE ALSO:
Ghosts haunt Serbian poll
27 Dec 03  |  Europe
Serbia vote: Parties and players
24 Dec 03  |  Europe
Country profile: Serbia and Montenegro
14 Dec 03  |  Country profiles
Serbia bloc folds after key role
19 Nov 03  |  Europe


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