By Rob Broomby

The Cold War is almost forgotten. The new world order has come and gone. Even the war on terror is now into its 20th month.

Europe's security threat has changed beyond recognition in just over a decade, yet America's military forces on the continent are still geared towards fighting a conventional land war.

US strength is to be refocused towards Europe's periphery

America still has over 100,000 troops in Europe, most of them in Germany.

But in a matter of weeks, America's most senior general in Europe, General James Jones, will publish his review of American bases and committments, the so called military "footprint".

It will recommend a major shift away from Western Europe.

"We need to start moving and looking east," his deputy, General Charles Wald, told the BBC.

He added that the new focus would be on areas of economic and geopolitical importance around Europe's periphery, he added.

The Supreme Allied Command stresses that the centre of gravity will remain in Central Europe, but they add that the "centre of activity" is moving.

Arc of instability

The US Secretary of State Colin Powell arrives in Bulgaria on Thursday to discuss the options.

The shock of war moves us forward John Hulsman of the Heritage Foundation

America already has a base on the Black Sea set up to help facilitate the attack on Iraq but the Bulgarians are are keen to do more.

"It's clear the missions of Nato and US troops are moving to the south-east" says Deputy Foreign Minister Lubomir Ivanov.

Private Jessica Lynch was among the Iraq injured flown to Germany

"This is where the challenges to European security are coming, so it's logical to deploy military bases in our region... it's the right answer to the asymmetric security threat," he told the BBC.

Romania is keen to help too. It hosted a base for 1,000 US troops in the run-up to the attack on Baghdad. Poland and the Czechs have also expressed an interest in taking American bases.

The review will see US military strength re-focused to deal with what strategists call the "arc of instability" stretching from the Caucasus to the Middle East and into north Africa.

Logistics hub

Dr John Hulsman of the Heritage Foundation will give expert evidence to the Senate on the subject before they approve the shift this summer.

"The troops need to be made more deployable and more rapid-reacting and to do that you want to move them closer to the possible threats", he said.

It may turn out to be a very expensive redeployment decision in political and financial terms Walter Stuetzle German former deputy defence minister

"The shock of war moves us forward," he added.

Most US casualties in Iraq were treated in Germany. But 2,000 miles from Iraq it was far from ideal.

Ramstein Airbase in Germany is the largest permanent US military community outside America.

It is a major logistics hub for the US military and, as such, is likely to survive. But other German bases could be scaled back or closed altogether.

The economic impact would be significant. In Berlin they know change is coming.

"Whether that number of army personnel is still needed in the centre of Europe can be seriously questioned and must be looked into," says former Deputy Defence Minister Walter Stuetzle.

Memories fading

But he warns against redeployment as a punishment for German opposition to the Iraq war.

" Don't rush until you have looked into the nitty-gritty details," he says.

"It may turn out to be a very expensive redeployment decision in political and financial terms."

General Charles Wald is keen to soothe Berlin's fears, praising Germany's post-war co-operation.

"We need all the friends we can get," he says.

But it is 14 years since the collapse of communism and memories of Cold War instability are fading.

Across Eastern Europe the new democracies know hosting US forces will bring increased influence and cash.

But the present governments - often more US-friendly than the public they represent - could be swept away.

Political impetus

General Jiri Sediwy, who was until recently the Czech Republic's most senior soldier, was trained under the Warsaw Pact, then re-trained by the Americans.

He would like to offer the US military support, but he admits after 20 years under the Soviet heel "there would be a part of the society against the presence".

The review must be cleared in Washington, but the ideas are already gaining political impetus.

A decision in the summer could see troops shift position next year.

The remnants of the post-war framework were shattered on 11 September.