...Over the last decade, no region of the world has been untouched by conflict. Most of these conflicts have been within rather than between states. In this period, European forces have been deployed abroad more often than in any previous decade, including to places as distant as Afghanistan, [Democratic Republic of] Congo or East Timor.

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As a union of 25 states with over 450 million people producing a quarter of the world's Gross National Product (GNP), the European Union is, like it or not, a global actor; it should be ready to share in the responsibility for global security.

New threats

Large-scale aggression against any Member State is now improbable. Instead Europe faces new threats which are more diverse, less visible and less predictable. In particular, Europe faces three key threats.

Terrorism

International terrorism is a strategic threat. It puts lives at risk; it imposes large costs; it threatens the openness and tolerance of our societies...

The transatlantic relationship is irreplaceable - acting together, the European Union and the United States can be a formidable force for good in the world EU foreign policy doctrine

The new terrorist movements seem willing to use unlimited violence and cause massive casualties. For this reason, the idea of obtaining weapons of mass destruction is attractive to them as it is not for traditional terrorist organisations.

Europe is both a target and a base for such terrorists. Logistical bases for al-Qaeda cells have been uncovered in the UK, Italy, Germany, Spain and Belgium. Al-Qaeda has named European countries as potential targets. Major attacks on our territory have been planned but thankfully thwarted...

Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction is the single most important threat to peace and security among nations... We are now, however, entering a new and dangerous period that raises the possibility of a WMD arms race, especially in the Middle East. The spread of missile technology adds a further element of instability and will put Europe at increasing risk.

The most frightening scenario is one in which terrorist groups acquire weapons of mass destruction...

Failed States and Organised Crime: In many parts of the world bad governance, civil conflict, and the easy availability of small arms have led to a weakening of state and social structures. In some cases, this has brought about something close to the collapse of state institutions. Somalia, Liberia and Afghanistan are the best known recent examples...

As states fail, organised crime takes over. Criminal activities in such states affect European security. Major illicit flows of drugs and migrants reach Europe through the Balkans, Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

Taking these different elements together - terrorism committed to maximum violence, the availability of weapons of mass destruction and the failure of state systems - we could be confronted with a very radical threat indeed.

Strategic objectives

This new world offers both a brighter prospect than mankind has ever known and at the same time a more terrifying future... This paper proposes three strategic objectives for the European Union...

• Extending the Zone of Security around Europe

  Even in an era of globalisation, geography is still important. It is in the European interest that countries on our borders are well-governed. Neighbours who are engaged in violent conflict, weak states where organised crime flourishes, dysfunctional societies or exploding population growth on its borders all pose problems for Europe.

  The reunification of Europe and the integration of acceding states will increase our security but they also bring Europe closer to troubled areas. Our task is to promote a ring of well governed countries to the East of the European Union and on the borders of the Mediterranean with whom we can enjoy close and cooperative relations...

• Strengthening the international order

  In a world of global threats, global markets and global media, our security and prosperity depend on an effective multilateral system. The development of a stronger international society, well functioning international institutions and a rule-based international order should be our objective...

  One of the core elements of the international system is the transatlantic relationship. This is not only in our bilateral interest but strengthens the international community as a whole. Nato is an important expression of this relationship...

  The fundamental framework for international relations is the United Nations Charter. Strengthening the United Nations, equipping it to fulfil its responsibilities and to act effectively, must be a European priority...

• Countering the threats

  ...Our traditional concept of self-defence - up to and including the Cold War - was based on the threat of invasion. With the new threats the first line of defence will often be abroad.

  The new threats are dynamic. Left alone, they will become more dangerous. The risks of proliferation grow over time; left alone, terrorist networks will become ever more dangerous (we should have tackled al-Qaeda much earlier). State failure and organised crime spread if they are neglected - as we have seen in West Africa.

  This implies that we should be ready to act before a crisis occurs. Conflict prevention and threat prevention cannot start too early...

Policy Implications for Europe

The European Union has made progress in developing a coherent foreign policy and effective crisis management in the last few years. We have instruments in place that can be used effectively, as we have demonstrated in the Balkans (and now more widely). But if we are to make a contribution that matches our potential, we need to be more active, more coherent and more capable.

More active in pursuing all our strategic objectives. In particular, more active policies are needed to counter the new, dynamic threats. As a Union of 25 members, spending a total of 160 billion Euros on defence, we should, if required, be able to sustain several operations simultaneously. We need to develop a strategic culture that fosters early, rapid, and when necessary, robust intervention...

More Coherent. The point of the Common Foreign and Security Policy and European Security and Defence Policy is that we are stronger when we act together...

More Capable. A more capable Europe is within our grasp, though it will take time to realise our full potential. We need to look in particular at the following:

• More resources for defence. If we are serious about new threats and about creating more flexible mobile forces we need to increase defence resources...

• Greater capacity to bring civilian resources to bear in crisis and post crisis situations...

• Stronger diplomatic capability... We have more than 45.000 diplomats. Here also pooling would increase capability...

• Improved sharing of intelligence among Member States and partners...

Working with partners. There are few if any problems we can deal with on our own...

The transatlantic relationship is irreplaceable. Acting together, the European Union and the United States can be a formidable force for good in the world. If we build up capabilities and increase coherence, we will be a more credible actor and a more influential partner.

We should continue to strengthen our ability to work with other key actors. The European Union has relationships throughout the world, but in the next years we should focus particularly on developing strategic partnerships with Russia, Japan, China, Canada and India....

Conclusion

This is a world in which there are new dangers but also new opportunities. If it can become a fully effective actor, the European Union has the potential to make a major contribution, both to dealing with the threats and to helping realise the opportunities. An active and capable European Union would make an impact on a global scale. In doing so, it would contribute to an effective multilateral system leading to a fairer and more secure world.