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Last Updated:  Wednesday, 12 March, 2003, 18:04 GMT
Djindjic leaves political vacuum
Alix Kroeger
By Alix Kroeger
BBC News

Zoran Djindjic
Djindjic grabbed the limelight, and sidelined Kostunica
Amid all the shock over the assassination of Zoran Djindjic, the question already being asked is: who will succeed him?

Djindjic was the dominant force in what remains of the reformist coalition which came together in October 2000 to topple Yugoslavia's former leader, Slobodan Milosevic.

It was Djindjic who spearheaded the reform process, however tentative and incomplete.

It was Djindjic who handed Mr Milosevic over to the war crimes tribunal in The Hague, settling old political scores and putting Serbia on the road to international rehabilitation at a stroke.

And it was Djindjic who moved to isolate his political rivals, concentrating power in his own hands and those of his allies.

Disillusionment

He comprehensively out-manoeuvred Vojislav Kostunica, his partner in the uprising of October 2000 who succeeded Mr Milosevic as president of Yugoslavia.

His deal-making, his failure to stop organised crime, the persistent allegations that he himself had mafia connections - all helped make him one of the most unpopular politicians in Serbia
Now Yugoslavia is gone, replaced by a loose union of Serbia and Montenegro, and Mr Kostunica is out of a job.

Relegated to the political margins, Mr Kostunica cuts a slightly forlorn figure.

He ran for the Serbian presidency - twice. But both elections failed because turnout fell below the 50% threshold required by law.

Those elections failed because people in Serbia are deeply disillusioned with politicians of every stripe - a phenomenon to which Djindjic himself contributed in no small measure.

His deal-making, his failure to stop organised crime, the persistent allegations that he himself had mafia connections - all helped make him one of the most unpopular politicians in Serbia.

Vojislav Kostunica
Kostunica: nationalist who could enjoy broad support
But does Mr Kostunica have the political skills to build his own coalition? A moderate nationalist and a conservative, he became the most popular politician in the country precisely because, unlike Djindjic, he refused to make deals.

Once in power, he and Djindjic quarrelled over every issue, dividing the coalition and eventually paralysing much of the work of government.

In recent months, Djindjic had begun moving onto Mr Kostunica's territory, courting the Serbian Orthodox Church and the nationalist vote.

Now it is up to Mr Kostunica to show that he can regain broad support.

Contenders

There are several other lesser figures who will also be considering their options.

Deputy Prime Minister Nebojsa Covic has won plaudits for his handling of negotiations over Kosovo and the Albanian insurgency in southern Serbia.

As for Djindjic's most high-profile protegee, Natasa Micic, few observers would rate her chances very highly
Zoran Zivkovic, a vice-president of Djindjic's own party, is also highly regarded and may be able to capitalise on his contacts in the law enforcement agencies.

He was formerly Yugoslav federal minister of police and was about to be made the Serbian armed forces minister, before Djindjic was killed.

The central bank governor, Mladjan Dinkic, has earned respect for his economic reforms, and enjoys the confidence of Serbia's financial backers.

He stabilised the Yugoslav (now Serbian) dinar, reduced inflation and negotiated the write-off of some Milosevic-era debts.

He recently formed a political party, G17 Plus, out of a think tank, but may lack the political power base, or popularity, to make a strong bid for the premiership.

Power politics

As for Djindjic's most high-profile protegee, Natasa Micic, few observers would rate her chances very highly.

Nicknamed "the Serbian Nicole Kidman" for her red hair and glamorous appearance, Ms Micic is speaker of the Serbian parliament.

She is also the acting Serbian president until a successor can be chosen in a valid election.

Her appointment was a consummate example of how Djindjic managed to place his allies in positions of power.

His death has left a political vacuum. The next few weeks will determine who will fill it - and whether the death of Serbia's most prominent reformist will prompt a nationalist revival.


WATCH AND LISTEN
The BBC's Jim Fish
"Djindjic's pro-western reforms may have provided one motive for his killing"



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