By Hugh Schofield In Paris

After his moment of glory in the presidential elections last month, France's far-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen is lowering his sights for the parliamentary vote that starts on Sunday.

It won't be a tidal wave, more a steadily rising tide - each time reaching a bit higher

Jean-Marie Le Pen

He knows he cannot hope to repeat what must have been the ecstasy of that 21 April result, when he rubbed the noses of his despised establishment in the electoral dirt.

Indeed, when the votes are counted in the second round on 16 June, his National Front (FN) party will be lucky to have half a dozen seats. It could well have none at all.

The reason for this is France's electoral arithmetic.

The FN would be "lucky" to secure half a dozen seats at the assembly

Even though 13% of the population say they will vote FN - down, but not dramatically so, from Le Pen's 16.86% in the first round of the presidential election - in a single-winner constituency system, the odds are stacked against it.

Look at the record: Mr Le Pen scored 15% in the 1995 presidential elections, and the FN 14.94% in the 1997 legislative vote - but it only took a single seat, and that was removed on judicial appeal.

'Political martyr'

But Mr Le Pen will not judge his success by the number of FN seats - quite the contrary.

Being excluded again from the national assembly will serve him very nicely, reinforcing his claim to be the victim of an undemocratic system.

The aim of Mr Le Pen at this and all other elections is to take another step forward in the establishment of the far-right as a permanent feature of the political landscape.

"All we need to do is gather as many votes as we did at the presidential," he said this week. "It won't be a tidal wave, more a steadily rising tide - each time reaching a bit higher."

It is a more modest objective, but perfectly realistic.

European trend

Mr Le Pen's presidential breakthrough coincided with a Europe-wide trend in favour of populist right-wingers prepared to speak plainly about immigration, crime and Islam. The combination, say FN officials, has "liberated the voters".

What is new this time are the expressions of sympathy. I have never seen so many young people - dozens of them - at my meetings

FN candidate Jean-Claude Martinez

Whereas in the past many far-right supporters refused to admit it - hence the misleading polls in the run-up to the presidential election - now there is much less reticence, they say.

"What is new this time are the expressions of sympathy. I have never seen so many young people - dozens of them - at my meetings," said Jean-Claude Martinez, who is standing for a constituency in the southern department of Herault.

Under the voting system, in each constituency the two frontrunners from round one qualify for the decider - as well as any candidate who has the support of more than 12.5% of the registered electorate.

Spoiling the party

The FN says it can hope to get through to round two in as many as 300 seats - its main support based in a long arc of territory from the Mediterranean coast, up the eastern side of France and through to the industrial wastelands of the north.

This is exaggerated - but a figure of 200 to 250 is reasonable to expect, many more than the 132 seats in which it won through in 1997.

Again, the chances of the FN actually winning any more than a handful of these seats are minimal, but it will certainly have proved its point - once more spoiling France's election party.

More importantly, it will have prepared the ground for the next challenge - regional elections in 2004, when the FN has serious hopes of seizing control of Provence-Alpes-Cote d'Azur (PACA) and Languedoc-Roussillon in the south.

Mr Le Pen would dearly love to be elected president of the PACA region. And what nose-rubbing there would be then!