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Sunday, 19 May, 2002, 12:36 GMT 13:36 UK
Analysis: Good times roll for Ahern
Sean Crowe won in Dublin south-west - a new seat for Sinn Fein
There were big gains for Sinn Fein
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By Shane Harrison
BBC Dublin correspondent
line
There is no doubt about who were the winners and losers in the Irish election.

Voters massively endorsed Bertie Ahern and his Fianna Fail party. He was able to capitalise on the feel-good factor associated with the Ireland's booming Celtic Tiger economy.

Another winner is Sinn Fein. Gerry Adams can justifiably claim voter support for the party's peace strategy.

One of those elected was Martin Ferris, a convicted IRA gun-runner, who was named under parliamentary privilege as a member of the IRA's ruling Army Council.

Sinn Fein strategy

Sinn Fein, the only party with elected representatives on both sides of the Irish border, sold itself to voters as the party keenest on a united Ireland and the party most sincere in wanting to end inequality.

Irish PM Bertie Ahern
Ahern reaped the harvest of economic success
It is little surprise then that Gerry Adams described the result as good news for the peace process.

Sinn Fein's leadership can point to the continuing growth of its brand of republicanism north and south.

The Greens and the liberal Progressive Democrats led by outgoing Deputy Prime Minister Mary Harney can also be happy.

Fine Gael meltdown

The real loser is the main opposition party, Fine Gael. Like Fianna Fail it occupies the centre ground of Irish politics.

But the party led by Michael Noonan is a victim of the politics of consensus and contentment. Senior members privately admit the results amount to electoral meltdown.

While the Labour Party was not a loser in the election, it must believe that as an opposition party it should have done better and taken some of those Fine Gael seats that went elsewhere.

Bertie Ahern had two simple messages in his campaign. Firstly, Fianna Fail had done a lot in office but there was more to do, and secondly the party had brought peace, prosperity and progress to Ireland.

Those messages struck a chord with an electorate that was reluctant to change what they regarded as a winning formula.

Ahern charisma

Fianna Fail was also able to capitalise on Bertie Ahern's undoubted popularity and celebrity.

Noonan
Michael Noonan: Quit after poor showing
His daughter, Georgina, is the girlfriend of Westlife pop star Nicky Byrne. He drew large crowds of well-wishers where ever he appeared.

This contrasted with Michael Noonan, who struggled to find the common touch, despite his widely acknowledged sense of humour.

It is generally agreed that, in the one television debate of the campaign, the Fine Gael leader performed better than Bertie Ahern. But it did not do him any good on polling day.

As one Fine Gael member said: "When the tide of public opinion goes out on you, there's nothing you can do but accept it".

Bertie Ahern will now start turning his attention to his next cabinet. He must know that he got elected because of the economic good times.

Tasks ahead

But the good times will not last forever. And difficult economic and political decisions lie ahead.

Perhaps the most pressing will be the ratification of the Nice Treaty on European Union in a second referendum later this year.

It is only 12 months ago that the electorate turned on Mr Ahern and rejected the Nice proposals.

As he savours the electoral plaudits of this year's success, Mr Ahern's thoughts must turn to the tasks ahead and he must ponder on the difficulties of satisfying a self-confident electorate increasingly used only to prosperity.

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News image The BBC's Helen Simms
"It's been a good day for Sinn Fein"
See also:

18 May 02 | Northern Ireland
Sinn Fein claims election success
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