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Tuesday, 30 January, 2001, 08:19 GMT
Analysis: EU alliances under strain
view of Nice with summit billboard
National self-interest was exposed at the Nice summit
By European Affairs correspondent
William Horsley

This week a series of top-level meetings among the leaders of Germany, France and Britain may give a clue to the direction of the Great Debate about Europe's future, which was launched at the EU summit in Nice last December.

The UK Prime Minister, Tony Blair, dined with the German Chancellor, Gerhard Schroeder, in Berlin on Monday, amid signs that Germany is reasserting itself as leader of a federal, integrated Europe.

And Mr Schroeder travels to Strasbourg on Wednesday for a meeting with the French President, Jacques Chirac, aimed at patching up the two countries' "special relationship".

UK Prime Minister Tony Blair (left) with Germany's Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder
The UK and German leaders are divided on EU integration

That will be hard, since Germany and France now disagree openly about the way ahead.

The Nice summit revealed the naked power play behind all the talk of idealism and common interests among the main players in the debate.

Now each is staking out its own ground on Europe's battlefield of ideas. But Europe's media are seeing the meetings and speeches largely as a dialogue of the deaf, in which tempers are becoming badly frayed.

'Shifting alliances'

An influential member of the European Commission, the Dutchman Frits Bolkestein, has spoken of Europe's current "shifting alliances". But Mr Bolkestein himself deplores these shows of national rivalry. Many, like him, now fear that the Great Debate will give off more heat than light.

A clash between Germany and Britain appears inevitable, after Chancellor Schroeder in recent days stepped up his rhetoric in favour of a formal constitution for the European Union, and called for more integration among the EU states, which would further pare away the powers of its nation-states.

UK scepticism

Mr Blair's own success in the UK general election, expected soon, depends partly on his claim to be shaping the Europe debate. Yet most British voters remain mostly hostile to the EU's exercise of power, and to joining the euro currency.

Deutsche Bank towers, Frankfurt
Germany's resurgence troubles some of its European neighbours

Meanwhile, German leaders are concerned at new signs that Mr Blair may take fright and postpone for years any decision on Britain's entry to the euro, robbing the euro's backers of the chance to complete the monetary union of Europe.

The past week has seen the resignation of Mr Blair's most enthusiastic pro-EU adviser, Northern Ireland Secretary Peter Mandelson.

Mr Blair's government has resolutely set its face against any legally-binding EU constitution, and the rift with Germany is opening old wounds.

German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer, in a speech in London last week, pointedly declined to repeat his earlier idea that future heads of a "European government" should be directly elected by the whole EU population. He knew that would have provoked a storm of protest in Britain.

Franco-German rift

But the greatest danger for the project of a "united Europe" comes from the new Franco-German tensions.

The French Government, shaken by Germany's new political assertiveness, questions Berlin's motives in seeking more supranational powers for the EU. And it fears German domination of central and eastern Europe.

In an interview in the German news magazine Der Spiegel, the French Minister for Europe, Pierre Moscovici, pleaded for "a Europe of nations". He acknowledged the warning signs of a climate of mistrust between France and Germany, and said they must be nipped in the bud.

Any open power rivalry between them, he said, would be "extremely dangerous for both, and disastrous for the European Union".

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See also:

17 Jan 01 | Europe
Sweden shuns enlargement date
08 Dec 00 | Europe
Bigger EU - smaller voice?
11 Dec 00 | Europe
EU leaders reach agreement
07 Dec 00 | Europe
Fears of a European superstate
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