By Neil Smith BBC News entertainment reporter

Brokeback Mountain is widely tipped to do well at the Oscars

Presented annually by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA), the Globes are seen as a reliable indicator of which films will go on to achieve Oscar glory.

Since 1990, the HFPA's 80-odd members have successfully identified the Academy's main recipient on 12 occasions.

And while their judgement is by no means infallible, it would be a major upset if Ang Lee's western love story with a difference were to be pipped to the post at this late stage.

It helps that the HFPA awards separate prizes to dramas and musicals or comedies, allowing it to split the ticket between two leading contenders.

Dry run

But while the recipient of the Golden Globe for best musical or comedy has sometimes gone on to land the best picture Oscar - Chicago being the most recent example - it is the best drama winner that generally goes on to further success.

This is not always the case, however. Last year, for example, the HFPA plumped for The Aviator over the eventual Oscar-winner, Clint Eastwood's Million Dollar Baby.

Philip Seymour Hoffman could make a welcome appearance in the Oscar spotlight after impressing in the lead role of Capote

For the most part, though, the Globes serve as a more informal dry run for the Oscars.

And with four days to go before the Academy ballot deadline, the Globes may well have helped a few voters make up their minds.

In the acting categories, the Golden Globes have a more patchy record.

In 2003, for example, Richard Gere was not even nominated for an Oscar after winning a best actor Globe for Chicago.

Uncertainty

And the Academy's habit of rewarding its own previously unsuccessful nominees adds an element of uncertainty to its event that suggests some prizes may still be up for grabs.

Globe winner Philip Seymour Hoffman, a highly-regarded actor whose track record includes Magnolia, Almost Famous and Boogie Nights, could make a rare and welcome appearance under the Oscar spotlight after impressing in the lead role of Capote.

Joaquin Phoenix and Reese Witherspoon may be fighting each other for Oscar recognition

He seems clear favourite to win the best actor Oscar, beating possible fellow nominee Joaquin Phoenix, star of Johnny Cash bio-pic Walk the Line.

If that were to happen, Phoenix's co-star Reese Witherspoon could benefit from those Academy voters still keen to recognise the movie, and follow up her Globe win with a best actress Oscar.

Felicity Huffman, Globe winner for Transamerica, could rival Witherspoon in the Oscar nominations, but not many Oscar voters will have seen the smaller independent movie, which could knock her chances.

Box office clout

The Globes can also be useful in suggesting strategies that enable well-regarded performers to exit with their dignity intact.

George Clooney's best supporting actor Globe was a convenient way of recognising his otherwise ignored achievement as director of Good Night, and Good Luck.

Given the actor's high standing and box office clout in Hollywood, it is possible the Academy will follow the HFPA's lead and give him an equivalent award.

It is worth noting, however, that there is no overlap between the HFPA's minuscule membership and the 5,798 registered Academy voters.

Globe winner Ang Lee will be watching the Directors' Guild of America awards

And while many see them as a dependable indicator of prevailing sentiment, others are just as ready to dismiss them as an anachronistic irrelevance.

Those preparing to wager on the outcome of this year's Oscars, therefore, might do better looking elsewhere for their form guide.

The Directors' Guild of America, for example, has an almost perfect record of forecasting the recipient of the best director Oscar.