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Wednesday, 2 August, 2000, 11:06 GMT 12:06 UK
Canada's 'dollarisation' debate grows
US dollar notes
Some Canadians want to adopt the US dollar
By Cherif Cordahi, Toronto

Debate in Canada over joining the US dollar has intensified with the introduction of the euro across the Atlantic and the consolidation of trade relations with the US.

Although the debate remains largely limited to academics and economists, the advantages of dollarisation are becoming clearer as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) - which clubs together Canada, the US and Mexico - approaches its tenth anniversary next year. Mexico joined in 1994.

Economists argue that currency union will improve efficiency in the Canadian economy and raise living standards.

"In Canada, the impetus comes from the efficiency gains and the productivity gains," says Andrew Pyle, an economist at Scotiabank in Toronto. "Canada has lagged the US in productivity growth for most of the last decade and I think currency union would address most of these issues."

Loss of monetary freedom

Equally though, pro-dollarisation economists recognise that the argument against joining is compelling. The loss of monetary freedom - as the US Federal Reserve would set interest rates - would remove a major instrument of economic policy from Canadian government hands.

External shocks, like the 1997 Asian currency crisis or the 1998 oil price collapse, would be harder to offset. The Canadian economy is heavily dependent on exports and international commodity prices. During the Asian and oil crises, the Canadian central bank was able to offset their negative impact by keeping interest rates low.


Canada has lagged the US in productivity growth ... Currency union would address ... these issues.

Andrew Pyle, Scotiabank economist

But the economy's overwhelming dependence is on the US, to which 85% of its goods exports go, according to official statistics. Last year, these were worth nearly $220bn.

Together with massive cross border investment, the rationale for removing exchange rate uncertainty is strong. At the moment, the Canadian dollar is weak relative to the US currency, helping contain export prices. But a stronger Canadian dollar could see prices rise and sales fall.

By far the largest single group of exports, at about 25% of the total, are cars, built by US companies taking advantage of tax breaks, a skilled local workforce, and free and easy access to the US market. But each year the manufacturers have to spend heavily on exchange rate hedging.

However, the political will to move towards dollarisation is weak. Canadians are fiercely proud of their political independence from the US.

Moves towards currency union would also be hindered by disagreement from French-speaking Quebec, which would see such a measure as just another step in its subjugation to English-speaking North America.

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10 Jul 00 | Americas
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