A summer of less discontent?

Unison has joined the Royal College of Nursing in backing the offer

Members of Britain's biggest health union have voted to accept a three-year pay offer from the government.

BBC economics editor Stephanie Flanders assesses where the result of the Unison ballot leaves the government's policy on public sector pay.

The summer of discontent that the unions had been promising the government just lost some key players.

Gordon Brown will be hoping it's a sign of the times.

Many midwives, cleaners and porters are still up for a fight. But this week's "Yes" votes from Unison and the Royal College of Nursing mean the vast majority of NHS workers - between them they represent about 1.1 million - have now formally backed away from a strike.

It is a relief for ministers, although if the ballot had gone the other way it is not clear they had a Plan B.

'Quiet retreat'

They had offered these NHS employees more than most - a rise of just under 8% over three years, plus a big rise in the NHS minimum wage.

At least one minister had hinted that if the deal were rejected the offer would shrink.

Like a lot of the pay awards that the government has put on the table this year, the deal shows the government quietly backing off its commitment to keep pay rises in line with the official inflation target of 2%.

With even that measure of price pressures now running at 3%, they know that 2% won't wash.

But the tighter economic environment makes things harder for the other side as well.

With so much money having been poured into the health service since 2001, NHS workers appear to have decided that now is not the time to ask for more.

A majority of the 250,000 council workers in the GMB union also accepted their 2.45% pay offer on 3 June � by a margin of four to one.

Ministers will be hoping that the 800,000 Unison members in local government vote the same way in their consultative ballot.

Unison is urging them to reject the deal. When their vote closes on 20 June we'll have a final prognosis for the 2008 summer of discontent.

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