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Last Updated: Friday, 29 September 2006, 11:49 GMT 12:49 UK
Oil price boost for Global 30
Jamie Robertson
By Jamie Robertson
Business presenter, BBC World

US home for sale
Falling US home prices make for talk of a soft landing

As the Dow flirts with an all-time high, the Global 30 is peppered with high-rising American stocks.

This is very different from back in May, when the Global 30, the FTSE, the Dow and the Nikkei were all heading up to heady levels - but the American stocks on the Global 30 lagged behind.

This time, though, the Americans are to the fore, with the British stocks - miners in particular, such as BHP Billiton and Anglo-American - and the Asian companies taking up the rear.

Soft landing?

What does it mean?

On one hand, it is a symptom of the 20% fall in the oil price.

The top two performers on the Global 30, Wal-Mart (up 11.5%) and Du Pont (up 8.4%), both benefit from lower distribution costs, and in Du Pont's case lower raw materials costs for its chemical products.

But it also suggests perceptions that the chances of a soft landing in the US are getting better, despite all the warnings of slower growth in the US.

BIGGEST RISERS IN SEPTEMBER
Vodafone sign
Wal-Mart Stores: +11.5%
Du Pont De Nemours: +8.4%
Vodafone Group: +6.8%
Microsoft Corp: +6%
China Mobile (Red Chip): +6%

"The market seems to have taken into account the idea that we are in for a soft landing now, and that is written into prices," Alexander Young of Standard & Poor's told World Business Report earlier this week.

"If it is something worse, then one would expect to see a serious correction as a result."

Back in business

Wal-Mart's revival is a huge relief for investors who have spent the first half of the year fretting over the shoddy performance of its German and South Korean operations.

Now, in the words of one analyst, "it seems as if it may have turned the corner."

Sales growth is coming in at the top end of its forecasts, and it's thrown down the gauntlet to the drug stores in Florida by expanding its discount policy into generic drug sales - in effect, cutting prices.

The hopes are that Wal-Mart will do to the drug retail business what it did to toys and groceries: push down prices and grab market share.

Vodafone's growth has been more modest - just 6.8% - but the market is excited by its interest in providing broadband services, first in the UK using BT land lines and also in Italy with FastWeb, the country's second-biggest fixed line operator.

Xbox
Microsoft's Xbox plans are helping boost its shares

Microsoft has also seen a handsome rise in its shares as investors' worries are soothed by the balm of positive news on its Zune digital music player (to be launched on November 18th in the US).

Also on the positive side, its Xbox 360 is now to have a creative partnership with the director of the Lord of the Rings, and price cuts for the games console are planned for Japan to spoil the launch of Nintendo's Playstation 3 before Christmas.

Commodities gloom

It's not surprising that the commodity companies have hit the bottom of the performance tables.

The miners had the added problem that a strike at Chile's Escondida (owned by BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto) choked off copper production.

The most surprising thing, though, is that BP's fall has not been greater than 3%.

BIGGEST FALLERS IN SEPTEMBER
BHP mine
BHP Billiton Ltd: -10.2%
Nokia: -6.4%
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial: -6.3%
Takeda Pharmaceutical: -4.5%
Seven & I Holdings: -4.3%

The oil company has been berated by US Congressmen for its failure to keep its Alaskan pipelines in order, and for failing to prevent deaths at its Texas oil refinery explosion last year.

On top of that, its Russian joint venture TNK-BP has been under scrutiny by the authorities for failing to stick to the terms of its licence as it searches for oil and gas in Siberia.

On the plus side, however, the western oil companies are putting up a robust defence of the Russian threats.

Furthermore, BP has announced a review of its entire management which it says will take anything up to 10 years, and entail a complete overhaul of the group's structure.

Asian woes

Generally, the Asian shares occupy the lower rankings of the Global 30 this month.

In Japan, land prices in the country's three largest cities have risen have for the first times in 16 years and the government removed the word "deflation" from its latest monthly assessment of the economy for the first time in more than five years.

But still there is worry that consumer spending is not rising as fast as it should in Japan.

BP truck
BP is weathering falling oil prices and Alaskan problems

This, at least, is not a problem in China, where the pace is breathtaking: a 13% rise or more in the past year.

Not surprising, then, that China Mobile is up 6% this month.

Even so, a slew of new offerings on the Hong Kong market means funds have been leaking out of blue-chips such as oil group CNOOC in favour of IPOs such as supermarket operator Beijing Jingkelong and China Merchants Bank.

Shares in Hutchison continue to struggle, falling 1.4% this month.

It is news of the conglomerate's problems with 3G phones that worries the market: this month it failed to get the European Union to give back millions of dollars in VAT that it had paid on 3G licences.

Meanwhile the markets barely noticed the awarding of a 30-year concession to Hutchison to build and operate a new container terminal in Ecuador - the first time Ecuador's government has allowed a foreign company to develop its ports.


BBC Global 30 intraday chart
value
change
%
5707.15
20.65
up
0.36

MARKET DATA - 11:37 UK

FTSE 100
5428.78up
22.840.42%
Dax
5732.06up
18.550.32%
Cac 40
3783.91up
14.370.38%
Dow Jones
10403.79up
78.530.76%
Nasdaq
2273.57up
35.311.58%
Data delayed by at least 15 minutes

SEE ALSO
Global 30 climbs despite BP woes
31 Aug 06 |  Business
US shares pull down BBC Global 30
05 May 06 |  Business
Acquisitions drive markets talk
03 Apr 06 |  Business



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