Mervyn King says the current retail picture is not yet clear

Mr King's speech came ahead of Friday's publication of the first official retail sales figures for December.

With a number of store groups having already reported poor trading over the festive period, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures could be weak.

Yet Mr King said any month's retail figures were "not always a good guide".

And a number of retailers - most notably Tesco - have reported strong festive sales.

Patience call

Economists assess retail sales data for clues to any future movements in interest rates, which are decided by the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee.

The most important lesson from past experience is that, whatever the number turns out to be, it is foolish to put too much weight on any month's figure, particularly at Christmas Mervyn King

Mr King cautioned against any snap reactions to the December figures from the ONS, saying "the true meaning of the Christmas story" would not be revealed until Easter and possibly much later.

"The Monetary Policy Committee is more concerned to discern the meaning of the path of consumer spending over a longer time horizon," he added.

"The most important lesson from past experience is that, whatever the number turns out to be, it is foolish to put too much weight on any month's figure, particularly at Christmas,"

Mixed Christmas

Mr King added that households only use about 40% of their budgets on the High Street and that retail sales figures were "not always a good guide" to spending habits.

A number of retailers have said their Christmas trading period was disappointing.

These include Morrisons, Woolworths, House of Fraser, Marks & Spencer and Big Food.

A British Retail Consortium survey found that Christmas 2004 was the worst for 10 years.

Yet at the same time a number of other retailers reported festive sales well up on last year, including HMV, Monsoon, Jessops, Body Shop, as well as Tesco.