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Last Updated: Wednesday, 14 January, 2004, 14:09 GMT
Q&A: What next in Euro budget battle?
Economic & Monetary Affairs Commissioner Pedro Solbes
Commission officials had little option but to take legal action

With the European Commission taking legal action over the suspension of rules governing the eurozone, BBC News Online takes a look at what might happen next in an increasingly stormy argument.

Why is the Commission taking legal action now?

It appears to have finally had enough of France and Germany being allowed continually to break the rule on limiting budget deficits.

Riding roughshod over the rules was damaging for the Commission's authority but EU finance ministers' decision to suspend them to let France and Germany off the hook might have been illegal.

It also left the Commission - supposed guardian and enforcer of eurozone rules - looking impotent if not irrelevant.

So, after much terse comment, the Commission is taking the matter to court.

Why should they bother?

That is what France and Germany are saying. There is also an argument that pursuing legal action will damage the Commission still further by causing relations with member states to deteriorate.

euro
France and Germany can't stop borrowing
Even if the Commission wins a judgement, it could be a hollow victory as it is unclear how any judgement would be enforced.

However, the Commission has decided that it would be worse to do nothing.

Either way, most observers see this as not just a row over deficits but a turning-point for the relationship between the Commission and the member states.

Will Germany and France be up in court together then?

No, it is the EU-wide Council of Finance Ministers that faces the legal action.

The Commission says that at this stage it is merely seeking legal clarification that the Council of Finance Ministers acted illegally in suspending the budget rules (at France and Germany's behest).

How will the legal process play out?

The case is to go before the European Court of Justice, the EU's highest court, under a fast-track scheme that could see judgement returned within several months.

If the court finds against the Council of Finance Ministers, the European Commission could decide to return to the court with a separate case against France and Germany for persistent deficit-busting. But that could take a while.

There is also the question of how any judgements flowing from that would be enforced.

But eventually German and France will face big fines?

Don't hold your breath.

The EU guidelines do not specify an exact figure, only that it will "impose fines of an appropriate size".

A complicating factor is that any warnings, threats of action or actual fines on countries that break the rules are meant to be approved by the EU finance ministers.

What happens when those ministers decide to suspend those rules, no-one really knows. If legal action gets that far, it could be back to square one.

Will France and Germany get away with it then?

Quite possibly.

The betting in Brussels is that some sort of out-of-court compromise will be reached, enabling loss of face to be minimised and France and Germany to avoid fines.

And if that happens, spare a thought for the poor Portuguese who have worked tirelessly over the past two years to reduce their national debt.

Whatever happens, there is likely to be egg on the faces of those directly involved and a good deal of gloating among Europe's various anti-EU and anti-euro groups.




SEE ALSO:
Stage set for EU battle
13 Jan 04  |  Business
EU takes budget battle to court
13 Jan 04  |  Business
EU budget deal 'may be illegal'
07 Jan 04  |  Business
Budget compromise attracts EU ire
25 Nov 03  |  Business
EU mulls budget deficit sanctions
24 Nov 03  |  Business


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