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Last Updated: Friday, 24 October, 2003, 15:07 GMT 16:07 UK
Retail boom points to rate rise
High Street sales grew by far more than expected last month, making an imminent interest rate increase more likely.

The Office for National Statistics said retail sales expanded by 0.6% in September, easily outstripping the 0.4% increase pencilled by City forecasters.

The figures suggest that consumers are still engaged in a debt-fuelled spending spree, and could prompt the Bank of England to raise borrowing costs in an effort to dampen down the High Street boom.

The Bank's rate-setting monetary policy committee (MPC), which has long been concerned over rising consumer debt, earlier this month voted by the narrowest possible margin to keep rates on hold at 3.5%.

Four of the MPC's nine members voted in favour of raising interest rates to 3.75%.

Growing pains

Separately, ONS said the British economy expanded by 0.6% between July and September, taking the annual growth rate to 1.9%.

The UK economy is quite strong - (it's) further evidence in favour of a rate hike
Peter Dixon, economist, Commerzbank
The figures, which marked the first official growth estimate for the third quarter, were in line with City expectations.

The growth rate for the three months to September was unchanged from ONS' upwardly revised estimate for the second quarter.

Analysts said the latest batch of data reinforced the view that the MPC would raise rates before the year was out, possibly as soon as next month.

"These numbers confirm that the UK economy is quite strong. (It's) further evidence in favour of a rate hike in November," said Peter Dixon, economist at Commerzbank.

George Buckley at Deutsche Bank said the retail sales and growth data combined were "certainly enough for the Bank of England to justify raising rates in November."

"That's what I think they will do," he said.

Up and down

The MPC is due to hold its next rate-setting meeting on 5 and 6 November.

The next rate increase will be the first since February 2000, when the MPC put up borrowing costs by a quarter of one percentage point to 6% as strong domestic and global growth threatened to boost inflation above the Treasury's target range of 1.5% to 3.5% a year.

The next change did not come until February 2001, when the MPC cut rates by a quarter point in an effort to counteract a sharp downturn in global growth as the late 1990s technology boom turned to bust.

Since then, the MPC has pushed through eight further rate cuts, taking borrowing costs to their current 48-year low of 3.5%.

Most economists have been predicting for some time that the next move in rates will be upwards, pointing to growing evidence of a recovery in global growth.

But higher borrowing costs would come as a blow to the hard-pressed UK manufacturing sector, which is tentatively emerging from a three-year period of stagnation punctuated by outright recession.

Some economists have also warned that any rise in rates could trigger a sharp reduction in spending by heavily-indebted consumers, depriving the economy of one of its main growth drivers.




WATCH AND LISTEN
The BBC's Luisa Baldini
"With interest rates at a 48 year low, experts say they will go upwards"



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