Analysis By Myles Neligan BBC News Online business reporter

Share prices are likely to trade in a tight range in the week ahead as rising oil prices and economic uncertainty continue to weigh on the markets.

Investors will be looking at UK GDP data

The FTSE 100 fell 2.3% last week to settle at 4,157 on Friday, below the symbolic 4,200 level, and its lowest close in seven weeks.

The decline partly reflected worries that a surge in oil prices following a surprise production cut by producers' cartel OPEC could derail the global economic recovery.

A slide in the value of the dollar, which began after G7 finance chiefs called for market forces to set exchange rates last weekend, also darkened the mood.

Although the weaker dollar is positive for American exporters, it could fuel inflationary pressures by boosting the price of imported goods, forcing the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

These factors are expected to continue weighing on investor confidence in the week ahead.

Rise and fall

"The issue for the week is whether the market is in the mood to try and jump beyond 4,200, or will slip closer to 4,100," said private investor Alpesh Patel.

Pessimists point to a recent accumulation of negative signals, including figures showing that senior US executives sold far more shares than they bought in August.

Heavy selling by so-called corporate insiders, seen as having a good insight into their companies' future performance, often precedes stock market falls.

But some analysts believe last week's sell-off on the FTSE was an overreaction, and expect the market to hold steady.

"It's all been a bit overdone," said Rupert Thompson, global strategist at E-Trade Securities.

"It's mainly because the market has come a long way in a short period of time. I think the (corporate) earnings figures will come through."

E-Trade Securities is forecasting that the FTSE will climb steadily over the next three months to end the year at 4,600, building on rally that has seen it rise by more than a quarter since mid-March.

Corporate hopes

Traders continue to hope that better than expected third quarter results from blue-chip companies, due out over the next few weeks, will provide unambiguous evidence that a recovery is under way.

There have been relatively few profit warnings so far, in a sign that the third quarter earnings season may provide the boost the market is looking for.

In the week ahead, the markets will be focusing on the final official estimate of UK gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2003, due out on Tuesday.

Last time, the annual rate of second quarter GDP growth was pencilled in at 1.8%.

The government will also be releasing revised GDP figures from 2002 onwards, following statistical changes which have already led to an upwards revision of the figures for 1999 and 2000.

A major upwards revision in the figures for 2002 could be interpreted as a sign that interest rates are set to go up sooner rather than later, putting share prices under pressure.

On Monday, the markets will also be listening closely to Chancellor Gordon Brown's speech at the Labour party annual conference.