By Nick Mackie Western China

Cruises up the Yangtze River have been cancelled

The economic consequences of the Sars virus are claiming their own victims, even in the Chinese city of Chongqing which has yet to see its first case.

It was meant to be a bumper season for Chongqing's 4,000-strong army of tour guides.

By March, cruises up the Yangtze River to the dramatic Three Gorges - one of China's top four attractions - were overbooked.

Sightseers from home and abroad wanted one last lingering look before this mighty river's new multi-billion dollar dam holds back the winter's melting snow and the landscape is changed forever.

But with China gripped by Sars panic, there will be no historic payload.

Although the main epicentres of the killer virus are elsewhere, nowhere is deemed safe.

Chongqing's businesses and the regional government are counting the cost of mass cancellations.

Still waters

Yang Shengqiang is in his 21st season as a tour guide.

Right now we don't have any of the tourist groups Yang Shengqiang Tour guide

This is the first time that he has stood idle on the banks of the Yangtze in early May and counted the anchored cruise boats bobbing up and down on the water.

From Chongqing to Wuhan, some 60 boats ferry around 6,000 tourists along the river on any given day at the height of the season.

But today, only gulls break the silence.

"Right now we don't have any of the tourist groups. So we are relaxing," explains an understated Mr Yang, who is only taking home half of his normal salary.

As expected from an employee of the state-run tourist board, he stresses his confidence that the government will get on top of the Sars crisis and tourist numbers will return.

Guarded forecasts

For the Chongqing municipality - with a population of 30 million and a land mass bigger than Belgium - tourism accounts for 11% of the local economy.

British travellers remain stoic

From January to May 2002, it played host to 15 million visitors, including 800,000 from overseas.

In the first quarter of 2003, when news of Sars began trickling out, tourist numbers dropped 5%.

But come April, when Beijing confirmed that China was dealing with an epidemic, bookings plummeted almost overnight.

Private tour operators say business has dropped 70% already.

For those used to Chongqing airport, the numbers of travellers are clearly down.

Most of those who do take to the skies wear face masks.

A notable exception was a party of stoic British tourists, not a face mask in sight.

As one remarked: "You've just got to get on with it, haven't you!"

Concern for staff

The manufacturing sector is also battling the storm.

Although companies are still tight-lipped about losses, they do confirm that buyers have cancelled trips to factories all over China - especially as most visitors first enter the country via Sars-infected Beijing, Shanghai or Hong Kong.

The government has advised people to get fit to stay healthy

Some joint ventures in Chongqing have even sent their foreign staff home in case they end up stranded if countries bar entry to anyone travelling from China.

South West of Chongqing in Kunming, the main city of Yunnan Province, Sars-related job losses in tourism are expected to hit 20,000 by the end of May.

The economic damage is estimated at $380m in business lost to hotels, scenic spots, transport and restaurants.

But if Sars were to reach Yunnan, one of China's poorest though picturesque regions, the fallout could be much greater.

Precautionary measures

Kunming has already lost one prestigious international event because of Sars fears - the unlikely sounding World Potato Congress.

High-ranking delegations from around the globe were to descend on Kunming in late April - a perfect forum for raising the region's profile with the investment community.

Now, the regional government has halted visitors from other provinces and there are regular patrols on the outskirts of towns to disinfect cars, check passengers' temperatures and register who is travelling where.

Consistent with the policy of reducing the risk of exposure to people outside the province, hotels were refusing reservations to non-Yunnan residents during the traditional May holiday weekend.

The winners

Of course, in any crisis, you will find winners.

Li Jing manages a pharmacy in Kunming's busy Renmin Xi Lu.

In the past two weeks, my custom has doubled as a lot of people have come to buy medicine Li Jing

She is busy preparing orders of the four government-approved recipes for anti-Sars medicines - prepared from traditional Chinese ingredients.

Ms Li also reports that sales of face masks and thermometers have rocketed since April when the panic began.

"In the past two weeks, my custom has doubled as a lot of people have come to buy medicine," explains Ms Li.

Future plans

The crisis has got the local tourism industry thinking hard about the post-Sars business environment.

In particular, the need for many of this huge country's regions to be less dependent on the main seaboard cities for their links to the outside world.

This would allow travellers to avoid the likes of Beijing and Hong Kong, which have the unenviable distinction of being on the World Health Organisation's travel warning blacklist.

Yang Sheng Qiang will be doing more reading

Yunnan, which borders Vietnam, Laos and Myanmar, does have direct flights with its neighbours, but not with Europe or the United States, both the source of a growing number of tourists and investors.

The province plans to push China's aviation authority to approve the establishment of new key routes.

"It will be very important for Yunnan to have direct flights to European countries, South Asia and East Asia," explains Luo Mingyi, director of Yunnan Provincial Tourism Administration.

Back on the banks of the Yangtze, in Chongqing, Yang Shengqiang considers what he will do with himself, now that this year's tourism season has died.

"So this year is special, we are all relaxing. We will have some time to broaden our knowledge and do some reading," he says.

He may want to consider some weighty Russian classics.