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Last Updated: Tuesday, 17 June, 2003, 07:04 GMT 08:04 UK
IMF forecasts 'inaccurate'
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The International Monetary Fund has a poor track record of successfully predicting financial crises, auditors have warned.

In particular, the much-watched World Economic Outlook was criticised for failing to sufficiently flag up potential trouble, a review by the General Accounting Office found.

The review found that, of the 134 recessions that occurred in 87 developing countries between 1991 and 2001, the IMF predicted just 15.

In addition, the report found that the IMF's forecasts for current account "were inaccurate most of the time".

The Fund has been much criticised in the past for failing to warn of major economic crises such as the Asian financial meltdown in 1997-1998 and the Mexican peso devaluation in 1995.

The IMF has been trying to overhaul its tools for predictions, but critics say the reforms have not gone far enough.

Self-fulfilling prophesies

The IMF's First Deputy Managing Director, Anne Krueger, said she broadly agreed with the report's findings but said it reflected "some serious misconceptions" about the agency's work.

"One reason the World Economic Outlook does not predict crises is that, if it did, these predictions could be self-fulfilling," Mr Krueger said in a written response, adding that these sorts of forecasts would be irresponsible.

Ms Krueger also stressed that the agency was working to improve the timeliness and coverage of new country monitoring reports.

But the review also quoted private sector financial market participants as saying the IMF's new "early warning system" was often outdated by the time is was published.




SEE ALSO:
IMF warns of weak world economy
09 Apr 03  |  Business
IMF faces wartime challenge
08 Apr 03  |  Business


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