 Ballooning imports of cars and other goods are a worry |
With the war in Iraq officially over, Australians resumed their free-spending habits in March to drive consumer spending upwards at three times the rate economists had expected. Falling petrol prices helped lift spending by 1.2% to A$14.83bn, the government said, against an average forecast of 0.4%.
Also showing a sharp upturn was borrowing on the part of both households and businesses, indicating that Australia's rude economic health still has some way to go despite weakness elsewhere in the world.
But that weakness has helped push Australia's trade balance deep into the red, with April bringing a record A$3.13bn trade deficit.
The Sars respiratory virus was partly to blame, the government said, thanks to its effect on tourism across Asia even though Australia has yet to experience its direct effects. The strengthening Australian dollar and weak demand in the rest of the world were also tipped as responsible.
Resilience
Reactions were mixed among economists.
For some, the robust numbers for both spending and borrowing came as a surprise.
"We banked on statistical distortion being a factor with two long weekends and also tourism, given the drop-off in overseas arrivals, but (consumer spending) is showing a lot of strength," said Kieran Davies, chief economist at ABN Amro in Sydney.
But some cautioned that the resilience in the economy meant that the chances of lower interest rates were impacted.
"In terms of implications for monetary policy, I think all the data we've had this week including the ones this morning tell you a very clear story of a resilient domestic economy," said Su Lin-Ong, senior economist at RBC, "and I think the Reserve Bank is mindful of that.
"The risk is still for lower rates but it probably won't be in the near term."