By Steve Schifferes BBC News Online at the World Bank meeting in Washington

Economic growth in many Middle East and North African countries has been hit by the Iraq war, the World Bank has warned, but it will take months to assess the full damage.

Visits to tourist sites have dropped

The Bank said Jordan would be the worst hit, with the country's economy shrinking this year compared with previous growth estimates of up to 6%.

But other non-oil exporting countries in the region, like Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, Lebanon and Syria, could also suffer from the general loss of confidence and uncertainty in the region.

And the Bank warned that the impetus for necessary economic and political reforms could be further set back as economic growth weakens.

The biggest impact has come from the collapse of tourism income, but the loss of cheap oil imports from Iraq has also hurt Jordan and Syria.

Huge task in Iraq

The head of the World Bank's Middle East and North Africa region, Jean-Louis Sarbib, outlined the magnitude of the development challenge within Iraq itself.

He said that, although the World Bank has no official figures, private estimates suggest that GDP per capita in Iraq has declined by two-thirds, from $3700 per person in l980 to $1200 in 2001.

And the number of under-nourished children increased from 9% to 20% in the same period, while infant and maternal mortality had also risen.

Mr Sarbib said that, even if the World Bank sent a mission to Iraq, it would take months just to evaluate the situation, and assess whether any official data or functioning government institutions remained.

Political concerns

But he said the Bank would only send a mission when it had a political consensus, and could only lend money when a legitimate, internationally recognised government emerged.

There was also a question of whether Iraq qualified for World Bank loans, as it had been "graduated" on the back high oil revenues to the status of an ineligible country in the l970s.

Mr Sarbib warned that if the World Bank went into Iraq under the wrong conditions, it could have a negative impact on the Bank's work and image throughout the region.

"For us to play a trusted role in the region, when emotions are running so high .. it is important how we first get involved in the reconstruction of Iraq," he said.

War the destroyer

Mr Sarbib pointed out that the immediate economic impact of wars was rarely positive, disrupting institutions, networks and infrastructure, and increasing volatility and uncertainty.

He warned that little progress could be made until the shape of a new Iraqi government was known.

"I think there is an enormous amount of uncertainty as to what institutions, what form of governance, is going to emerge from the post war situation," he said.

However, compared with its task in helping to rebuild Afghanistan, the World Bank said that Iraq had two advantages: a skilled and educated workforce, and huge oil reserves.

Over 4 million Iraqis live abroad, and their return could provide an enormous boost to the economy.

But Iraq suffers from one major disadvantage: it has been run, like the former Soviet Union, as a command-and-control economy.

And experience with transition economies in Eastern Europe has shown that it takes a long time for people to adjust to the new economic paradigm, and many remain frozen in the old mentality for many years to come.