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EDITIONS
 Wednesday, 18 December, 2002, 11:08 GMT
Bank of England split on interest rates
The Bank of England's rate-setting monetary policy committee
The MPC faces an interest rate dilemma
Two of the nine people who set the UK's interest rates still think the state of the economy calls for borrowing to be cheaper.

The minutes of the last meeting of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee, on 4 and 5 December, show that the two believe soaring house prices in the UK are less of a risk than the world economic slowdown.

The two members, Stephen Nickell and Christopher Allsopp, have now voted for a cut three months in succession.

But the majority still fear that the rampant housing market, and the spike in consumer debt, mean higher inflation is too much of a risk to drop interest rates from their current 38-year low of 4%.

But they are fighting shy of taking action to puncture the house price boom, saying it would be "inappropriate". The fact also remains that manufacturing output is falling, and higher rates could handicap investment.

No surprise

The revelation that Messrs Allsopp and Nickell had backed further easing on the interest rate front came as little surprise to analysts.

Neither, in recent speeches, have made any attempt to disguise their position.

Their belief is that growing household debt can actually hold down inflation.

They also see house prices turning downward in the near future.

This view is shared by many in the Bank of England - including governor-designate Mervyn King, who warned in a recent speech that housing market gains were unsustainable.

Fears of a slowdown

The nay-sayers have been joined by a chorus of building societies and other analysts.

A report by economic consultancy Capital Economics warned that the UK property market was severely overvalued, and that prices could fall by up to 30% over the next few years.

UK bank HBOS also sees a sharp slowdown, but it forecasts continuing slim gains rather than a slump.

Will the UK economy feel the impact of the US slowdown?

Economic indicators

Analysis

UK rate decisions
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