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Friday, 22 November, 2002, 18:38 GMT
Gambling on a high-tech recovery
People watching a demonstration on the Microsoft stand
The crowds want to know when the recovery will come
News image

Predicting technology trends is a notoriously risky business.

Thomas Watson, CEO of IBM, said in 1943 that the world demand for computers was probably all of five, and Bill Gates said in 1981 that 640K of computer memory should be enough for anyone.

However, the Comdex conference provides a pretty good idea of where things are heading in the near term.

But, no matter what will be the next killer application or must-have gadget, it is safe to say that those at Comdex want the next big trend to be a recovery in the much battered high-technology industry.

  • One trend that is obvious is that the keyboard, while never going away completely, will have to compete with a number of different ways to control our computers.

  • Computers at the show, especially home-entertainment machines, now come with a remote control to flick through your MP3 collection, channel surf or watch your favourite DVDs.

  • Mice can fly. A company called Gyration was showing off a mouse with a built-in gyroscope that can be used to control the computer by waving the mouse in the air.

  • And you had better clean up that illegible handwriting. You'll be writing a lot more on your computer.

    Fortunately, companies such as Sweden's Decuma are improving handwriting recognition greatly. They have developed a technology called OnSpot.

    The software recognises your handwriting, converting it as you write.

    The converted handwriting appears under the text you entered, making it much easier to write and correct on the fly.

    The pill cam

    The line between computers and entertainment is blurring. Game consoles are becoming computers and DVD players, as computers are becoming home entertainment centres.

    Graphics chip maker nVidia launched its latest processor and proclaimed the beginning of the era of cinematic computing.

    The Wi-Fi pavilion at Comdex
    Wireless technology draws the crowds

    And wireless networking is here to stay. Comdex was dotted with so-called Wi-Fi, hotspots, which were always crowded.

    People would sit congregated around them, happily surfing the internet on wireless enabled laptops.

    And wireless networking is making its way into all kinds of things and showing up in all kinds of applications.

    One truly amazing wireless device was the M2A Camera Pill by Given Imaging.

    A patient swallows the pill, and it takes two pictures per second for six hours. The images are transmitted to a recorder on a belt.

    The pill is used to examine the inside of the small intestine to diagnose such disorders as irritable bowel syndrome, Crohn's disease and iron-deficiency anaemia. Before the pill camera, exploratory surgery was required.

    A future without wires

    But the trend a lot of people at Comdex wanted to know about was when the recovery in the tech industry would begin.

    National Semiconductor CEO Brian Halla promised to deliver this date in his keynote address.

    A Decuma device
    Handwriting need not be a thing of the past

    But he didn't reveal the date until laying out his vision of the future and giving an upbeat assessment of the state of high-technology.

    This is the industry. This is the place to be," he said.

    He said that soon the cost of including radios for wireless technologies, from the new short-range standard Bluetooth, will drop to zero.

    Once features on semiconductors drop to 0.10 microns, the cost of the additional silicon will essentially be nothing.

    Right now, chips are made with features measuring 0.13 microns.

    Wireless networking will become pervasive. And the constant march of smaller, faster processors will lead to intelligence being put in more devices.

    Pervasive networking will link a network of pervasive computers.

    The million dollar question

    Another trend that will drive the next boom will be China.

    As an example, Mr Halla said that China alone accounts for one-fourth of the mobile phone handsets shipped globally and sales are growing by 28% in China per year, he said.

    The bullish Mr Halla then explained how he had arrived at the date for the next tech boom.

    He asked Dr Ahmad Bahai to analyse the business cycles of the semi-conductor industry.

    They used linear and non-linear regression, factored in chaos theory effects and factored in the economic impact of China. The equation roughly tracked the historic business cycles.

    When will the recovery be in full swing? In true Vegas style, the wheels of a slot machine spun in front of the audience.

    The date? June 21, 2003. So now you know.

  • See also:

    22 Nov 02 | Business
    21 Nov 02 | Business
    19 Nov 02 | Business
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