I can't believe any CEO still standing would be stupid enough to falsely certify their books... Not when jail time is the certain consequence

Paul O'Neill, US Treasury Secretary

In a speech to a business school in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, Mr O'Neill said the worst of the corporate scandals at companies such as Enron, WorldCom, Global Crossing and Arthur Andersen were a thing of the past.

Economic fundamentals were sound, he said, and with the stock market at historic lows the time had come for a full-scale recovery.

But new figures from the well-respected private Conference Board contradicted his optimism, indicating that the economy could still be headed for a "double-dip" second recession.

Looking ahead

The Conference Board's so-called "leading indicator" tries to predict what the economy will be like in six months' time.

For the fourth month in a row, the index declined in September - in this case by the 0.2% economists had expected.

Taken at its most pessimistic, the omens could point to a renewal of the economic slowdown that hit the US - and the rest of the world - from 2000 onwards as the tech-driven boom came apart at the seams.

But the recent stock market falls may have amplified the negative reading, and the figures for July and August have been upgraded in retrospect.

"A stalling out of growth is a more reasonable prospect than the economy falling back into recession," said the Board's economist, Ken Goldstein.

Positive vibes

Mr O'Neill's take on the situation was much more bullish.

"The latest indicators look good," he said.

"The auto and housing markets are strong. Consumers are taking advantage of low interest rates to buy cars and homes."

As for corporate scandals, he rebuffed suggestions that there were still skeletons in the cupboard.

"I can't believe any CEO still standing would be stupid enough to falsely certify their books," he said.

"Not when jail time is the certain consequence."