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Thursday, 21 March, 2002, 22:26 GMT
Inflation prompts US rate rise fears
shoppers
Shoppers faced higher prices in February
Higher prices for clothes and airline fares have given fresh credence to the theory that the US economy is on the road to recovery, and raised the spectre of a rise in interest rates later this year.


The road ahead is far from smooth, with sluggish profits and weak export demand

Ken Goldstein
Consumer prices rose by 0.2% in February, taking the year-on-year rate to 1.1%.

The rise was in line with analyst expectations, but stock markets reacted negatively to the news.

The US Federal Reserve hinted on Tuesday that the current interest rate of 1.75% - the lowest level in 40 years - could be pushed higher later this year.

Greenspan cheer

The Fed's chairman, Alan Greenspan, dropped a 15-month-old warning that weakness posed the biggest threat to the economy.

Monthly price rises
Clothing +0.5%
Airlines +1%
Medical care +0.3%
Food +0.2%
Energy -0.8%
The central banker balances the economy's strength against the risk of inflation when making interest rate decisions.

The Dow Jones index of leading shares fell almost 150 points before recovering somewhat to close 22 points down at 10,450.

Similar fears over interest rate rises had pushed the index 135 points lower the previous day.

Rocky road

Also on Thursday, the Conference Board said its index of leading US economic indicators was flat in February, but maintained that the US economy is nonetheless "firmly in recovery."

The index had previously been rising for the past four months.

And some economists have already questioned how fast and deeply the US economy will recover.

"The road ahead is far from smooth, with sluggish profits and weak export demand restraining growth," Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein warned.

See also:

25 Sep 01 | Business
Why consumer confidence matters
01 Mar 02 | Business
Mixed message from US economy
01 Feb 02 | Business
US recession fears ease
26 Feb 02 | Business
US consumer confidence slips
07 Mar 02 | Business
Greenspan upbeat on US recovery
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