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| Sunday, 17 March, 2002, 22:01 GMT Economic test as Portugal votes Portugal badly needs an economic boost
After the resignation of Socialist Prime Minister Antonio Guterres late last year, the ruling party looks set to lose its control of the government. Whoever wins the elections will inherit a difficult task of taming a ballooning state deficit and boosting its economic growth rate. Portugal, still the poorest country in the EU, has made enormous progress in the past decades after its dictatorship collapsed in 1974. The country's economy grew steadily, new roads and plants were built, tourist infrastructure was modernised and living standards grew. But now the boom is over. The economy is predicted to have grown only 1.7% in 2001, down from 3.4% in both of the previous two years. Devaluation of the currency in order to boost exports is no longer an option, as Portugal is a part of the eurozone. Spending too much And the government is running out of money, leaving the state budget with a deficit of 2.2%, twice as high as predicted. This prompted European Commission in February to threaten Lisbon with an unprecedented formal warning about the danger of coming close to the EU budget-deficit limit of 3%. Some critics say that the real deficit is even higher.
The Socialist government committed itself to balance state finances within three years. Centre-right Social Democrats, the main opposition party, are also promising to "review the state finances". Already the government has cancelled a naval exercise and forced the army to borrow from commercial banks to pay for supplies, but many economists argue that cuts should be more severe. Privatisation slows A huge state sector, which emerged as a result of a massive nationalisation in mid-1970s, has kept unemployment four times lower than in the neighbouring Spain. But the losses of the state enterprises are putting the budget under sever pressure, while the government has delayed further privatisations until market conditions improve. Some critics blame the state for being too attached to its strategic companies and reluctant to sell to overseas buyers. Eastern threat Now the steady flow of foreign investments in Portugal is drying up. Foreign investment totalled 1.1bn euros (�684m, $965m) in 2001 compared to 3.9bn in 2000. In the past, Portugal's relatively cheap workforce attracted foreigners, and the country's market was regarded as one of the most stable and promising in Europe.
Now it could lose out to Eastern Europe. "Portugal will soon have to compete with future members of the EU where tax rates are more attractive and the workforce is highly trained and of low cost", Jose Luis Cardoso of Lisbon University said. Another threat is an loss of EU subsidies, which will be redirected towards even poorer new member-states in Eastern and Central Europe in a few years' time. Tough task ahead Both of the main political parties fighting for power have put economic issues high on their agendas. The exit poll-leading Social Democrats, headed by Manuel Durao Barrosa, are proposing corporate tax reduction from the current 28% to 20%, as well as a cut in the top rate of income tax by 5% to 35%. ![]() Will they still be celebrating after the election? But Portugal's business is divided on the tax initiatives of the both parties, stressing that liberalising of the labour market and upgrading the country's educational system might be more effective for nation's productivity. Portugal's productivity is the lowest in the EU and both parties are promising to tackle the problem. Socialists propose to provide free training for the youth, while their rivals insist on introduction of an "emergency" education program to improve study of Portugal language as well as math and science. "The education system has to be reformed so that it responds to the needs of the workforce", said Pedro Matos Branco, an economist in Banco Espirito Santo. Whoever wins the election, the new government will face tough tasks and have less room for manoeuvre than its predecessors. With EU going eastwards, trade barriers vanishing, currency devaluation impossible and the world economy slowing, Lisbon has to work hard to keep its 10 million people in work and prosperous.. | See also: 08 Mar 02 | Country profiles 30 Jan 02 | Business 12 Feb 02 | Business 28 Dec 01 | Europe 17 Dec 01 | Europe Internet links: The BBC is not responsible for the content of external internet sites Top Business stories now: Links to more Business stories are at the foot of the page. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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