It's not the milestone everyone has been waiting for, but it's a step in the right direction - and a very important step

Jaap Favier Forrester Research

Internet forecasters are almost unanimous in predicting a bumper Christmas for e-tailers.

Many share the view that the e-tailers who have survived the vagaries of boom and bust are finally coming of age.

"This is a significant milestone," says Jaap Favier, research director at Forrester Research.

"It's not the milestone everyone has been waiting for, but it's a step in the right direction - and a very important step."

More confident

David Cooper, business development director at the financial services company, Goldfish, believes the upturn is coming more quickly than many expected, particularly after the recent bout of dot.com scepticism.

Forrester research

European online retail spending will grow by 60% this holiday season December will see 25% of all European online sales for the year UK consumers will spend 1.4bn euros, accounting for almost 34% of all European online spending Source: Forrester Research

"People understand the internet more and how it works. They are also less concerned about safety," he says.

Goldfish's most recent Christmas survey of online consumers indicates that security is no longer the main concern when shopping online.

It has been replaced at the top of the list by concerns about fulfilment - or the timely delivery of Christmas presents - reflecting the growing sophistication of online shoppers.

Sales jump

According to Forrester's research, 60% more money will be spent online by European consumers during the month before Christmas Eve, compared with the same period last year.

Accenture research

Six out of 10 consumers will spend as much or more online as they did last year Only 8% reported that the internet would be the first choice for shopping 12% said they enjoyed buying online 25% said they could find more sales and promotions online Source: Accenture

The company's 2000 prediction was only off by less than 1% when measured against actual sales.

Sales figures for the month of November are hard to come by, but the Thanksgiving holiday in the US has already confounded expectations.

In a survey by the internet research firm Nielsen/Net Ratings, online shopping was 22% above normal on the Friday after the Thanksgiving break.

Yahoo, Amazon and the traditional retailers with websites all enjoyed an upsurge in visitors.

Amazon alone received 1.7 million visitors during the day, selling 12,000 more items per hour than it did on the same day last year.

Profits at last?

More people are shopping on the net than ever before and December is expected to be a landmark month.

Goldfish research

UK consumers will spend 16% of their Christmas budget online UK consumers will spend �2bn online as a result of Christmas Source: Goldfish

But that has not necessarily seen e-tailers reaping in the profits.

"Few online retailers are making a profit yet," says Mr Favier.

"For many, December could be the first time ever they have made monthly or quarterly profit.

"It's an important milestone on the route to year-round profitability."

The reasons for such bullish forecasts are varied.

Verdict research

Christmas will see �815m in sales Online spending in Nov and Dec will mean a 147% increase on last year Source: Verdict Research

Mr Favier believes that users who came online several years ago are now beginning to have an impact.

Forrester research finds that only 12% of the users who have recently come online buy something within the first six months.

However, among users with three years' experience of the net, 25% will buy online.

"It is 'learned behaviour' - it doesn't come naturally... if the experience goes well, the inhibitors slowly go away," he says.

Dot.com fall-out

Goldfish's Mr Cooper adds that the fall-out in the dot.com sector over the last year has sorted the strong e-tailers from the weak.

Last year Letsbuyit.com delivered gifts after Xmas

"Those that just concentrated on building their brand, and not infrastructure or service, have gone."

E-tailers are also becoming more experienced at dealing with the Christmas rush and maintaining customer confidence.

Horror stories from previous years - such as Letsbuyit.com delivering Christmas trees in January - have focused minds.

In a bid to avoid disappointment this year, Amazon carefully explains on its Welcome page about delivery limits during the Christmas period.

Some sites are even constraining the range of goods that can be bought closer to Christmas, says Mr Cooper.

Turning to the net

Such measures have helped to make consumers feel more confident and are probably fuelling consumer intentions to spend more on the net.

"Internet shopping with the convenience of home delivery remains an attractive option for some products, especially music, video and books," says Brian Kalms, a partner in Accenture's retail industry group.

These type of volumes have never been experienced before - it is still going to be tough

Jaap Favier Forrester Research

In the UK alone, Goldfish is predicting that �2bn will be pumped into the online economy as a result of Christmas-related purchases.

With the economic slowdown lurking in the background, shoppers are also looking for bargains - and the internet has traditionally been the place to go.

In a survey by Accenture, one in four shoppers said they could find more sales and promotions online.

Ironically, the danger this year is whether the e-tailers can cope with the considerable jump in sales volume, despite any improvements they may have made to their service.

"These type of volumes have never been experienced before - it is still going to be tough," says Mr Favier.

As with any coming of age, the e-tailers may have shrugged off the problems of their infancy, but there are still many challenges ahead.