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| Monday, 15 October, 2001, 15:32 GMT 16:32 UK Qatar highlights Opec dilemma ![]() Political sensitivities are complicating Opec's decision By the BBC World Business Report's Russell Padmore As the international price of oil continues to fall speculation is growing that the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) will move to reduce levels of production. On Monday Qatar's Oil Minister, Abdullah al-Attiyah, revealed that there is a "strong movement" within Opec to cut output to stabilise dropping oil prices. The cartel is due to meet in mid November to consider whether to change levels of production, though it could decide to act before then. The oil exporters recognise that demand is falling, but any decision to shore up prices could prove politically sensitive. Opec's target level is about $25 a barrel, but crude oil prices are falling as demand is falling. Last month the industry's benchmark, Brent Crude, was about $30 a barrel, but today it's hovering around $21.60. Economic implications The organisation's usual response is to reduce production to restrict supplies in order to force prices higher. Opec even has a pre-arranged mechanism that kicks in to ease back production if the price falls below $22 for ten consecutive days. But with the world's major economies trying to stave off recession any move to limit oil production would be highly criticised as endangering economic recovery.
"We have to take into account different factors in order to see the performance of the market and what would be the results of each Opec action," he said. "We have to analyse the present situation very carefully before we can make any decision." The financial markets have been driving the price of oil lower, convinced that supplies will remain steady because Opec will not reduce production. |
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