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Monday, 15 October, 2001, 15:32 GMT 16:32 UK
Qatar highlights Opec dilemma
Oil worker at refinery in Tehran
Political sensitivities are complicating Opec's decision
By the BBC World Business Report's Russell Padmore

As the international price of oil continues to fall speculation is growing that the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) will move to reduce levels of production.

On Monday Qatar's Oil Minister, Abdullah al-Attiyah, revealed that there is a "strong movement" within Opec to cut output to stabilise dropping oil prices.

The cartel is due to meet in mid November to consider whether to change levels of production, though it could decide to act before then.

The oil exporters recognise that demand is falling, but any decision to shore up prices could prove politically sensitive.

Opec's target level is about $25 a barrel, but crude oil prices are falling as demand is falling.

Last month the industry's benchmark, Brent Crude, was about $30 a barrel, but today it's hovering around $21.60.

Economic implications

The organisation's usual response is to reduce production to restrict supplies in order to force prices higher.

Opec even has a pre-arranged mechanism that kicks in to ease back production if the price falls below $22 for ten consecutive days.

But with the world's major economies trying to stave off recession any move to limit oil production would be highly criticised as endangering economic recovery.

Ali Rodriguez, Secretary General of Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec)
Rodriguez: options must be carefully considered
Opec's secretary general, Ali Rodriguez, maintains that the cartel will weigh all factors before reaching a decision.

"We have to take into account different factors in order to see the performance of the market and what would be the results of each Opec action," he said.

"We have to analyse the present situation very carefully before we can make any decision."

The financial markets have been driving the price of oil lower, convinced that supplies will remain steady because Opec will not reduce production.

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News image The BBC's Andrew Walker
"The current international situation makes it difficult for Opec to act"
See also:

12 Oct 01 | Business
Oil demand set to slump
10 Oct 01 | Business
Oil output cut 'imminent'
09 Oct 01 | Business
Oil output cut viewed unlikely
05 Oct 01 | Business
Oil prices bounce back
04 Oct 01 | Business
Opec faces up to low oil prices
24 Sep 01 | Business
Oil prices sink to year low
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