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The BBC's James Coomarasamy
"Economists here are pointing to an unusual side effect of the forthcoming currency swap as a very positive development"
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Friday, 29 June, 2001, 20:22 GMT 21:22 UK
France's jobless rises again
Factory worker leaving work for last time
More French factory workers are losing their jobs

By BBC News Online's Jonty Bloom

The French unemployment rate has risen for the second month in a row, adding to signs that growth in the eurozone's second largest economy is being adversely affected by the US economic slowdown.

Economists are split as to whether this is just a blip or the first signs that four years of impressive growth in France are coming to an end.

French unemployment at 8.7% is still high by British standards, but for France it is at an 18 year low.

Pretty impressive growth has helped France cut dole queues almost continuously since June 1997, when the Government inherited a 12.6% jobless rate.

But these jobless figures are not the only worrying news, they come on the heels of data this week showing a drop in business optimism and a survey by INSEE forecasting economic growth of just 2.3% this year, sharply below initial expectations, although not a bad rate for a large economy like France.

These figures also add to the gloom in Germany, where the number of unemployed rose 18,000 in May from April, adding to rising fears for the health of Europe's largest economy.

Chances of a rate cut

There now seems no doubt that the slowdown in America has well and truly made its way across the Atlantic.

But despite the fact that the Federal Reserve cut rates again on Wednesday, don't hold your breath for a cut in rates here.

The Bank of England is expected to hold fire on rates and the ECB which is holding its fortnightly meeting next week is also expected to leave rates unchanged.

Despite this rise in the jobless rate the ECB is still worried about inflation.

And having damaged its reputation by cutting rates once this year when the figures didn't really justify it, it doesn't seem likely that they'll move again just now.

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See also:

18 Jun 01 | Business
Eurozone inflation soars
14 Jun 01 | Business
ECB downgrades European growth
07 Jun 01 | Business
Eurozone rates left on hold
04 Apr 01 | Business
Germany's unemployment rises
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