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| Wednesday, 14 March, 2001, 13:48 GMT Explaining the unemployment figures
Unemployment is now below the one million mark for the first time in 25 years. The BBC's Dharshini David looks behind the numbers to see what's really going on. Can the government take the credit? The fall in unemployment over the last few years has largely reflected the strength of the economy, according to independent economists. The UK economy has now been expanding for over 8 years. This partly reflects the government's actions, and perhaps more importantly those of the Bank of England's. It is the Bank who sets interest rates, which are the main instrument for managing the economy. The present government has also attempted to boost employment through its New Deal jobs and training schemes. The evidence suggests these programmes have been at least partly successful. But part of the credit is due to the previous government. The 1970s and 1980s saw widespread reforms to the labour market - such as a reduction in trade union powers, and stricter rules surrounding benefits. By creating a more flexible labour market, this may have enabled unemployment to fall faster and further Are the figures being fiddled? The "headline"unemployment figures are based on the number of people who are eligible for, and claiming unemployment benefit. Over the last twenty years or so, there have been a number of changes to the rules governing who can claim benefits. On the whole, this has had the effect of reducing the count - and is why governments have been accused of fudging the numbers. There is an alternative measure of unemployment, known as the International Labour Office one, which is based on a survey of households. This one is consistent with measures in other countries, and even the government prefers to focus on it. The ILO measure shows the level of unemployment as being higher, at 1.5m. But even on this definition, the number of people out of work has been falling steadily, and is at its lowest level since the series was first published in 1984. How much further could it fall? As the global economy starts to slow, the experts think that unemployment could reach a trough soon, and perhaps start to rise slightly by the end of the year. In the meantime further falls are possible. But if unemployment falls past a certain point, it becomes difficult to find workers. This means that firms have to pay higher wages to recruit and retain workers. And as wage growth accelerates, so too could inflation. Defining this crucial level of unemployment is almost impossible - not least because it changes over time. With mixed evidence on wages, it is difficult to say if we have now breached this level. Do all the people in work have real jobs? The number of people in work is now at a record high. Over the last few years, all of the new jobs created are in the service sector, while manufacturing jobs have fallen. Equally, the proportion of people in part time posts has risen. But these jobs are largely filled by those who want to work part-time, not those who would prefer to work full-time. Certainly, employment has been growing most rapidly in sectors such as hotel and catering, which are traditionally less well paid. But even the more lucrative sectors - such as financial services - have seen sturdy rises in employment. Can the government achieve full employment? For one reason or another, there is always likely to be some people who are unable to find work and are left on the unemployment register. For this reason, "full" employment is unlikely to mean zero unemployment - historical evidence suggests that an unemployment rate of 2% is as close as we may be able to get. The best way the government can aim at getting to or below this rate is by aiming to boost the skills of those out of work, so that they can meet the requirements of employers. This is the way most of the government's current schemes are geared. What does this mean for interest rates? The key drawback of low unemployment is that it could lead to higher wages growth, and hence inflation. For that reason, the Bank of England keeps a close eye on the jobs market. At the moment, wages growth is within the range the Bank has deemed acceptable. But if it rises further - and unemployment falls further - then the next cut in interest rates could be postponed. |
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