Despite some alarmist reports to the contrary, most defence analysts do not believe that China is about to invade Taiwan.

The facts behind all of the latest sabre-rattling is that the Chinese armed forces with over two million personnel are in no condition to undertake what would be one of the largest amphibious assaults in history.

Firstly, China's nearest landfall in Taiwan is across between 80 and 100 miles of sea, and the Chinese do not have the amphibious vessels to ferry the estimated 250,000 troops that an invasion would require across this stretch of water.

At the moment, they have just over 70 landing vessels and to provide the force necessary for landings at several points in Taiwan would almost certainly require several hundred.

Secondly, it is very doubtful that the Chinese could mass the number of modern sophisticated aircraft required to provide the local air superiority necessary over the Taiwan Strait during the operation.

In addition, before embarking on such a risky military operation the Chinese forces do not appear to have been conducting the whole series of combined land, air and naval exercises that such an undertaking would require.

Wargames

Analysts believe that China's exercises in the Taiwan Strait in November 1996 were conducted as an effort to assess the ability of its armed forces to invade Taiwan.

Tension mounts: Harsh words may just be sabre-rattling

However, a report by the US Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) detailed some of the many shortfalls facing the Chinese in a "real-world" operation against Taiwan.

"We do not believe the Chinese have the logistics capability to support the operations of a large complement of forward-deployed forces conducting high-intensity warfare," the ONI report stated.

For the majority of military analysts there does not appear to have been any evidence to suggest that the situation has changed much during the past two-and-a-half years.

The Chinese land forces remain essentially a 1970s organisation with too many men, very little really modern equipment and a continuing lack of an ability to mount effective combined operations.

Fightback

There is also little doubt that Taiwan would fight if attacked.

Coastal defences: Taiwan could spot Chinese air attack

Taiwan has about 375,000 ready forces and over 1.5 million reserves. The standing army has 240,000 troops with more effective equipment than the Chinese.

The air force has over 500 combat aircraft and some of these are very sophisticated, modern US F-16s and French Mirage 2000-5s.

The strength of Taiwan's air defences is such that analysts believe that any attempt by China to launch a bombing campaign would be ineffective, either stopped before the aircraft had crossed the straits or met with fierce resistance over land.

The 68,000 strong navy has more than 36 frigates and destroyers plus four submarines and would almost certainly be extremely effective against a Chinese naval force operating in Taiwanese waters.

The US factor

Finally, the real deterrent is the US Seventh Fleet with its headquarters at Yokosuka in Japan and a "Carrier Battle Group" capable of deploying quickly to a Taiwanese operational area.

Modern warfare: Taiwan has far better technology than China

US aircraft carriers can mount up to 70 of the most modern aircraft for both air defence and attack missions and a carrier battle group stationed 100 miles to the east of Taiwan would almost certainly be able to wreak havoc on a Chinese amphibious force in the Taiwan Strait.

More critically still, the presence of the US would almost certainly rule out an escalation of military action beyond conventional warfare.

If China launched a missile attack on Taiwan, not only would it prompt a missile exchange - but would probably lead to the US being dragged into the conflict - the last thing Beijing wants to do.

It is possible that Beijing might try to impose a sea and air blockade to destroy Taiwan's economy but this is unlikely given the probable inability of the Chinese navy to produce the number of ships and aircraft necessary to mount a co-ordinated blockade.

The costs

But, most importantly, the Chinese Government is well aware of the costs of such a military adventure.

The economic cost would be very high, probably a lot more than the Chinese could afford.

There would be international outrage, a probably collapse of confidence in the economy and the possible loss of face in a messy military action against a well-armed Taiwanese military - all of which could destabilise an already worried Beijing.

Almost all of military analysts say that, for now, an invasion of Taiwan is not on the cards.

However, the political and military pressure will almost certainly continue and the situation could be very different in 10 to 15 years time.

If China were to produce some really modern armed forces capable of carrying out joint operations in line with modern military concepts, analysts of the future could well be writing a different story.