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Wednesday, 19 June, 2002, 12:13 GMT 13:13 UK
Analysis: The impact of Korea's scandals
President Kim Dae-jung's sons, Kim Hong-gul (left - afp) and Kim Hong-up (right - ap)
President Kim's sons are implicated in corruption cases
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The scandals encircling the family and close aides of South Korean President Kim Dae-jung are intensifying.

Two of his sons are now under suspicion for corruption, with one charged and awaiting trial.

Political analysts are now questioning whether the party Mr Kim founded, the Millennium Democratic Party (MDP), can survive.


We could soon see the party breaking up...

Political analyst Kim In-young
The scandals have been blamed for the crushing defeat of the MDP in the recent local elections, when the main opposition party, the conservative Grand National Party (GNP), swept up most of the country's posts for mayors and provincial governors.

And just as worryingly for the MDP, its reformist presidential candidate Roh Moo-hyun - a former labour activist - who at one stage was leading the GNP's rival candidate, Lee Hoi-chang, in opinion polls, is now trailing behind.

The chances of an MDP win in the end-of-year presidential elections now appear much slimmer.

"We could soon see the party breaking up... maybe within the next two or three months," predicts Kim In-young, professor of political science at Hallym University.

"The deciding factor is likely to be the August by-elections. A bad result will probably hasten the break-up. It's just a matter of time."

Footie factor

Some of the damage resulting from the impact of the political scandals has been mitigated by the World Cup football tournament, which South Korea is co-hosting with Japan.


In South Korea... parents are often blamed for their children's transgressions

The arrest of the president's youngest son, Kim Hong-gul, early June, was reported in the media - but overshadowed by the national team's fortunes in the football finals.

But many predict that once the football fever has died down, the scandals will once again take their place on the front pages of the newspapers.

"The public are fed up with the politicians and the scandals. That's why they've been going so crazy about the World Cup," says Hahm Sung-deuk, professor of political economy at Korea University.

But while the political scandals involving the president's aides and sons have been highly damaging for the MDP, some believe that by acting boldly, the party's presidential candidate can yet turn misfortune into an opportunity.

Many are urging Mr Roh to thoroughly reform the party, and distance it more firmly from President Kim and his entourage - some of whom still exercise strong control over the party apparatus.

A bad father?

President Kim himself is not implicated in any of the scandals.

President Kim
President Kim had pledged to clean up politics
But when he first came to office, he had pledged to make the fight against corruption a key priority, and many feel he has betrayed the public's trust.

In South Korea - one of Asia's most Confucian countries - parents are often blamed for their children's transgressions.

"President Kim's achievements, such as steering the country out of the IMF crisis, his drive to open up better relations with North Korea, and his Nobel peace prize, are all evaporating because of these scandals," says Professor Hahm.

"We still regard the presidential position as a kind of fatherhood role model; and for fatherhood, for leadership, we require a high level of morality, based on respect and esteem."

See also:

19 Jun 02 | Asia-Pacific
05 Jun 02 | Asia-Pacific
18 May 02 | Asia-Pacific
16 May 02 | Asia-Pacific
06 May 02 | Asia-Pacific
26 Apr 02 | Asia-Pacific
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