I don't think the government will release Anwar because Mahathir is afraid of him

Anwar supporter

Its a view Anwar might well have reflected on this week, as he sat in the Federal Court, listening to his lawyers attempting to overturn his conviction on corruption charges that earned him a six year term in prison.

On Thursday, the court adjourned the appeal hearings until late March.

Days after his dismissal by Dr Mahathir in September 1998, the former deputy prime minister addressed a noisy crowd of 30,000 supporters in Merdeka square.

High water mark

It was to be the high-water mark of the pro-reform movement which adopted Anwar as its symbol. He was arrested soon afterwards, and has remained in detention ever since.

Police quickly suppressed anti-Mathathir demonstrations in 1998

This week, the crowds watching Anwar's daily arrival at the courthouse under heavy police guard have been much smaller.

A longstanding spinal injury has left him wearing a neck and abdominal brace, and suffering incessant pain.

But the cheers of even a few dozen supporters, and the now-ritual chants of "reformasi" and "down, down Mahathir !" have clearly lifted Mr Anwar's spirits.

Anwar's large legal team seem cautiously optimistic about their chances of winning if not an acquittal, then at least a reduction in his sentence.

Certainly, the atmosphere inside the ornate courtroom does not have the confrontational edge of the original trial.

Even so, the defence counsel face a sizeable challenge. They must convince the three appeal court judges that the corruption trial was a fix.

'No fairness'

Defence lawyer Sulaiman Abdullah told the court: "There was no fairness to Anwar from start to finish."

Anwar in his former position as finance minister, 1997

Cynics - including most of Mr Anwar's supporters - are far from sanguine.

"I don't think the government will release Anwar because Mahathir is afraid of him," said Mohamed Sharbi, one of those waiting outside the courthouse.

"He won't let Anwar out of jail even for one minute."

If correct, that analysis might help explain why the appeal hearings have been repeatedly postponed, and why the heavily-controlled local media have given the hearings minimal coverage.

Yet on the face of it, Dr Mahathir has less to fear from Anwar and his opposition allies than at any time since the 1998 crisis.

The economy has not recovered significantly, but nor has it imploded as once seemed possible. Moreover, the reverberations of the 11 September attacks in the United States have played right into Dr Mahathir's hands.

Damaging links

An ongoing police inquiry into the activities of Malaysian Islamic militants linked to Osama Bin Laden has plainly damaged the opposition Parti se-Islam Malaysia (PAS), the principal ally of Mr Anwar's Keadilan party, even though no firm evidence of PAS involvement has emerged.

Dr Mahathir remains in control

There's one other important reason why Dr Mahathir need scarcely feel threatened by his charismatic former deputy.

Besides the corruption sentence, Anwar still faces a nine-year jail term imposed in August 2000 for sodomy.

Anwar is appealing against that sentence too, but no date has been set for the hearings.