China could use the collision to put pressure on Bush

They believe Taiwan must strengthen its defences in the face of a build-up of Chinese missiles across the Taiwan Strait and have asked for sophisticated armaments.

The fact that an American EP-3 surveillance aircraft is now sitting on the runway of a Chinese airbase on Hainan Island makes the president's decision that much more sensitive.

His first priority will be to get the return of the aircraft and crew.

But China last month dispatched its Vice-Premier, Qian Qichen, to Washington to argue against the arms sales.

US academics arrested

Beijing has already blamed the United States for the collision that damaged the American plane and caused one of its jets to crash, and it could seek to use the incident to put pressure on the new administration.

US-based academic Gao Zhan has been arrested in China

Washington's relations with China have also been complicated by news of the detention of at least two American Chinese academics on the mainland.

One, Li Shaomin, was seized after he crossed the border from Hong Kong, where he is based.

The second Gao Zhan, has been accused of spying.

China-US tensions

May 1999: US missile in Kosovo campaign mistakenly hits China embassy in Belgrade January 2001: George W Bush becomes US President. Pledges tough line with China on arms sales to Taiwan/national missile defence shield February 2001: US attacks China human rights record March 2001: Second US-based academic arrested on China trip April 2001: US surveillance plane lands in China

Other incidents which have contributed to a rise in tension are revelations about the defection of a high-ranking People's Liberation Army officer to the United States and America's plans to create a national missile defence shield.

One of the reasons Beijing opposes the forthcoming arms sale to Taiwan is that it fears the island might be given Arleigh Burke class destroyers equipped with America's Aegis anti-missile defence system.

That would bring Taiwan a step closer to being protected by a missile defence shield.

Reports from Washington over the weekend suggested the president has to make a decision about the arms sale, but the next few days could test his administration to the full.