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Tuesday, 6 March, 2001, 15:38 GMT
Military funding reflects China's fears
Chinese troops
The military budget is believed to be much larger than that disclosed
By Francis Markus East Asia analyst

Most analysts view the $17bn record budget, set out by Chinese Finance Minister Xiang Huaicheng for the military, as representing only a portion of real military spending.

It is not likely to encompass the amounts that flow from sales of military hardware abroad, or the costs of research and development.

Estimates of the true military budget figures vary from double to five times the official figure.

Nato peacekeepers in Kosovo
The active role that Nato took in Kosovo has caused concern

It is clear, however, that the spending increase addresses several key areas of concern among the Chinese leadership.

There has been an increasing worry in Beijing that the US and Nato's pro-active role in such conflicts as Kosovo threatens to create what China regards as a dangerously uni-polar world order.

The resonance of this theme among many ordinary Chinese people means that the government can to some extent use the issue as a political rallying point in times of economic drift and ideological vacuum.

Taiwan issue

The same is true of Beijing's long-running confrontation with Taiwan, which is one of the main rationales for increased defence spending.

There seems wide consensus among Chinese on the mainland that Taiwan's increasing assertion of its own separate identity constitutes a challenge to China's integrity.

Despite the dire warnings by Chinese leaders beforehand, the election of Chen Shui-bian from the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party as the island's president in March 2000 has not so far produced a significant increase in military tension with the island.

But Chinese academics have expressed fears that successive elections in Taiwan in 2004 and 2008 could enlarge the mandate of the DPP, which won only 39% of the popular vote last year.

Competing for recruits

Economically, the spending increase addresses the rising costs of retaining qualified technical personnel in an environment of heightened competition from the country's private sector.

Patriotism alone, or even job security, is no longer a sufficient attraction to potential recruits in today's Chinese economy.

The Chinese authorities' efforts to boost the resources of the military are also firmly anchored in domestic politics.

Chen Shui-bian
Taiwan's President Chen has not threatened China as predicted
The government three years ago issued an order to the armed forces to withdraw from commercial activities.

But the gradual dismantling of the military's vast business empires is a process for which the defence establishment is clearly expecting to be compensated.

The latest increase of nearly 18% in official defence spending clearly reflects that.

It also reflects the fact that with important leadership changes expected at a Communist Party congress next year, the support of the military's top brass is a commodity, which those taking over the top positions can not afford to be without.

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See also:

21 Feb 01 | Asia-Pacific
Q&A: Taiwan's relations with China
05 Mar 01 | Asia-Pacific
China aims to double economy
05 Mar 01 | Media reports
Chinese agriculture's new revolution
06 Mar 01 | Asia-Pacific
China warns Bush over Taiwan
05 Feb 01 | Asia-Pacific
Historic China-Taiwan trip
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