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| Sunday, 4 February, 2001, 06:31 GMT Analysis: FARC holds all the cards ![]() FARC has an estimated 17,000 members By Jeremy McDermott in Bogota Manuel Marulanda, the head of Colombia's largest rebel army, has been outwitting and out-manoeuvring the country's presidents and generals for more than 40 years. He looks set to do so again this Thursday when he meets President Andres Pastrana face-to-face as the latter tries to save his faltering peace process.
Now he leads the 17,000-strong Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), and it is the military that - more often than not - seek to avoid him. Not bad for a man who had the most rudimentary of education and has never lived in a city. President's weak hand On Thursday, President Pastrana goes down to the 42,000-square-kilometre Farc safe haven to try to persuade Mr Marulanda to restart stalled peace talks. As usual, the wily 70-year-old guerrilla leader is holding all the cards. The bottom line is that Mr Pastrana has staked his presidency on finding a negotiated solution to Colombia's civil conflict and has a year-and-a-half left of his administration to show some results.
But President Pastrana is under increasing pressure from a disillusioned Colombian public to get tough with the FARC. They are tired of repeated concessions to the guerrillas, who have only replied with record levels of kidnapping, violence and instability. No aces But President Pastrana has no ace up his sleeve, no way to really put pressure on the guerrillas.
But nor is the FARC able to fulfil its stated aim of seizing power. So the best President Pastrana can hope for on Thursday is that Mr Marulanda will agree to resume talks. But the rebel leader is expected to charge a high price: a renewal of the safe haven until the end of the Pastrana administration, a prisoner exchange and more promises from the government to fight the right-wing paramilitaries that have been killing suspected guerillas. |
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