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Tuesday, October 27, 1998 Published at 19:16 GMT
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World: Africa
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'Last chance' to avoid war
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Troops are massed on the border ready for conflict
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African specialist Martin Plaut reports

The simmering border dispute between Eritrea and Ethiopia that resulted in open conflict in May and June is due to be discussed by African leaders.

President Blaise Compaore, the current chairman of the Organisation of African Unity, is to present the findings of an OAU mediation mission to the leaders of both Eritrea and Ethiopia.

The two countries have around 200,000 troops currently stationed along their border, and the OAU mediation is seen as a last chance to avert an all-out war.

Conflict far from over

Open fighting between Ethiopia and Eritrea has been on hold since a cease-fire was introduced in the middle of June. But the conflict is far from over.


[ image: An initial border clash has led to troops spread all along the border]
An initial border clash has led to troops spread all along the border
With so many troops facing each other incidents are inevitable - only last week the two sides exchanged artillery fire.

Both have used the lull to re-equip and reinforce their troops, spread out along their 1,000km border.

The OAU is doing all it can to resolve the crisis. President Mugabe of Zimbabwe and his Djibouti counterpart, Hassan Gouled Aptidon, are to travel to Burkina Faso, in November, to present the results of the OAU mediation mission.

Their work has been supported by the United States, which sent a special envoy, Anthony Lake, to both Asmara and Addis Ababa. He has drawn up practical proposals that could support the OAU's plans.

All proposals are still under wraps, but to succeed any plan will have to contain a number of elements.

These include:

  • a withdrawal of forces.

  • the demilitarisation of the disputed area.

  • the positioning of monitors.

  • discussions to resolve the conflict.

Diplomatic sources say that there is now more optimism about achieving a settlement, but there is so much hostility that any peace mission can only have a 50% chance of success.

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