The current constitutional law places the president of the republic in an embarrassing situation

President dos Santos

Yet for a man whose current position of power depends on having beaten the odds at least twice, he has displayed remarkable political dexterity in staying there.

Thursday's revelation that he was to step down from the presidency at the next election left diplomats puzzling over his motives - yet those close to the MPLA say the announcement has been expected for some time.

His friends say he is weary after 22 years in office. His detractors say that he is choosing to extricate himself from the presidency while he still has a choice in the matter.

Not leaving now

Mr dos Santos clearly does not intend to leave office right now.

In his speech to the MPLA central committee, he made it clear that elections were dependent on a return to stability in Angola.

The war has left over one million displaced people

Although he spoke of military gains by government forces, he emphasised the enormous job that it will be to return displaced people to their places of origin, and to allow the free movement of people and goods - conditions that both Mr dos Santos and his opponents would agree are necessary for a fair election to take place.

Mr dos Santos said that peace was not an absolute condition for elections, and that if necessary the government would deploy force to make sure the vote could go ahead whatever the military situation in the land.

But calling out the troops is still his own prerogative.

Options open

Hence while presenting himself as someone who is humbly preparing to step down, Mr dos Santos is still able to keep his options open.

Ultimately, he will have the final say over when conditions are eventually right for voters to go to the polls, and hence for him to bow out.

But there is also in another sense in which much of Mr dos Santos's grip on power depends on the abnormal situation in Angola.

Mr Savimbi lost the 1992 election

He narrowly failed to secure an outright majority in the 1992 presidential elections, which normally would have resulted in the need for a second round between himself and Unita leader Jonas Savimbi.

Mr Savimbi's return to war ruled out the second round - but it still leaves Mr dos Santos, technically, as an interim president for the last nine years.

After dismissing several prime ministers, Mr dos Santos then took on the duties of prime minister for himself, as well as remaining as head of state and president of the ruling party.

Relying on crisis

He has sought to justify this concentration of power - which critics have condemned as unconstitutional - in terms of the state of crisis prevailing in the country.

But increasingly, his tenure as president has come to rely on a delicate balancing act involving the party, the government, and the presidential inner circle.

A gradual withdrawal from power, as one would normally expect from a man in his position, would involve him relinquishing one role at a time - and there has been talk that he might yet appoint a prime minister before the elections.

But on Thursday Mr dos Santos hinted at the difficulties that have arisen from wearing three hats at once.

The people of Angola have learned to make the best of their situation

"The current constitutional law places the president of the republic in an embarrassing situation because (according to the constitution) the president of the republic may not take the initiative of forming the government, despite the fact that he was elected in 1992 as the leader of the majority party," he said.

"If today for example, I were to nominate someone for the position of prime minister, the current government will consider itself dismissed and this prime minister would propose his own government to the head of state.

"It is evident that not all people that have the confidence of the prime minister are the same ones that have the confidence of the head of state."

Having woven the web that keeps him in power, a man whom one diplomat dubbed "Africa's Machiavelli" is now having to use all his political cunning to extricate himself from it if he is to enjoy a happy, peaceful and prosperous retirement.