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Tuesday, 6 March, 2001, 08:23 GMT
Analysis: Mugabe turns to France
Mugabe and Belgian PM Guy Verhofstad
Mugabe has already met Belgian officials
By Joseph Winter

Robert Mugabe is travelling to France from Belgium hoping to turn the age-old Anglo-French rivalry to his advantage.

In recent weeks, the state media in Zimbabwe has been claming that France supports his controversial and violent programme of land reform.

However, the position of the new French ambassador in Harare was less clear-cut.

He merely stated that France supports the principle of redistributing land from whites to blacks, but stressed that this must be done in a peaceful and legal manner.

Past support

Not that different in fact from the position of other donors - even the "perfidious Albion".

But France does have a track record of supporting African regimes which, to put it mildly, have cut the odd democratic corner, such as Angola, Congo-Brazzaville and Burkina Faso, following the assassination of the popular revolutionary Thomas Sankara.

Jean-Christophe Mitterand, son of the late President, Francois Mitterand, is currently under investigation for allegedly illegally profiting by selling weapons to Angola.

The state-run oil company Elf, which wields enormous clout amongst oil exporters such as Congo-Brazzaville and Gabon, is currently up to its neck in a series of scandals, which allegedly include corruption and influence peddling.

Tougher stance

If Mr Mugabe could persuade Jacques Chirac to publicly endorse his policies it would be a major coup, but France is unlikely to split from the common diplomatic front adopted by the European Union across Africa and, generally the rest the of the world.

As well as Britain, other European countries such as Sweden, Denmark and Germany have recently toughened their position against Zimbabwe.

Thabo Mbeki
Mr Mbeki could put a stranglehold on Zimbabwe's resources

War veterans scaring the independent-minded Chief Justice into resigning and the murder of Gloria Olds, the mother of a farmer assassinated a year ago, will not make Mr Mugabe's diplomatic offensive any easier.

Since the IMF cut off aid in 1999, Zimbabwe has experienced acute shortages of foreign currency, meaning it has been unable to pay for vital imports of fuel and electricity, along with more mundane, but job creating items such as car assembly kits and computers.

However charming Mr Mugabe may be, France is unlikely to fill a gap running into millions of US dollars.

Mbeki's influence

The man who does have real power over Zimbabwe is South Africa's President Thabo Mbeki.

Some members of the opposition MDC have called on him to stop supplying fuel to Harare on credit.

This would immediately mean even longer petrol queues and power cuts - greatly increasing the domestic pressure on Mr Mugabe.

But such a drastic step would impose further hardships on Zimbabwe's beleaguered population, meaning more economic refugees crossing the River Limpopo into South Africa - the last thing that Mr Mbeki wants.

Shared history

Despite recent signs that Mr Mbeki may be losing patience, especially over the intimidation of the judiciary and media, South Africa is unlikely to issue an outright condemnation of Mr Mugabe.

Both governments share a history of fighting white minority regimes and these ties, which go back a generation to Mr Mbeki's father Govan, still run deep.

While Mr Mugabe's attempt to establish an "entente cordiale" with France may not solve his many economic woes, the hope in some foreign capitals of forcing Mr Mugabe out by remote control seems forlorn.

Only Zimbabwe's population has that power and many of them are afraid that voting against the man that brought them freedom 21 years ago, would now plunge the country into civil war.

Joseph Winter reported for the BBC from Zimbabwe. He was recently expelled by the Harare authorities.

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See also:

10 Feb 01 | From Our Own Correspondent
Zimbabwe's descent into violence
26 Oct 00 | Africa
Mugabe under pressure
19 Feb 01 | Africa
Why I left Zimbabwe
06 Mar 01 | Europe
Mugabe defends rights record
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