THIS TRANSCRIPT IS ISSUED ON THE UNDERSTANDING THAT IT IS TAKEN FROM A LIVE PROGRAMME AS IT WAS BROADCAST. THE NATURE OF LIVE BROADCASTING MEANS THAT NEITHER THE BBC NOR THE PARTICIPANTS IN THE PROGRAMME CAN GUARANTEE THE ACCURACY OF THE INFORMATION HERE. MONEY BOX Presenter: PAUL LEWIS TRANSMISSION 1st JANUARY 2005 12.00-12.30pm RADIO 4 LEWIS: Hello and welcome to the first Money Box of 2005. In today’s programme, we’ll be looking at the chip and pin revolution that may be a year late, asking where we should save or invest our money this year. Samantha Washington’s with me today. WASHINGTON: How would you feel if a computer rang you on your mobile to say your credit card may have been used fraudulently? LEWIS: And I went to Birmingham to check out an interest free loan scheme for buying contemporary works of art. But first, the chip and pin revolution. From today a new high tech system was supposed to cut down on the £400 million a year of fraud on credit and debit cards. Instead of signing our card in the old- fashioned way, we’d enter a four-digit number, our PIN. But Money Box has learned that many retailers still do not have the right equipment to use the technology and the banks have still not upgraded 53 million cards, about four out of ten. It could be into 2006 before all cards have the new chip and all retailers can use the PIN. As a result, banks and major shops have decided that we can sign if we want to for at least another 6 months and probably longer. Woolworth’s is one retailer that does have the new technology, but spokesman Daniel Himsworth confirmed, “if you can’t remember that pesky PIN, don’t worry”. HIMSWORTH: We still have a signature fallback. There’s a period of grace while the customers and the retailers get used to the new system. LEWIS: How long is that going to last? HIMSWORTH: Well we’re working with other retailers, the British Retail Consortium, and the Chip and Pin Organisation to take a decision on how long we should offer that service. LEWIS: So if somebody comes in with a new card, they can’t remember their PIN, they can still sign the same as ever? HIMSWORTH: Absolutely, there’ll be no change for the customer. LEWIS: But some smaller retailers are less clear about the rules. Peter Williams runs a convenience store in St. Albans. He says he doesn’t know exactly where he stands today. WILLIAMS: The banks haven’t been clear at all. There has been some communication over the last 18 months. It is very general. LEWIS: If you had one message or question for the banks, what would it be? WILLIAMS: Tell us how we’re going to deal with customers who come up after 1st January with £50 worth of goods, who say they don’t know what their PIN number is? What are we going to do? Are we going to refuse them or are we going to get them to sign as before? We don’t know. LEWIS: And some customers are expressing their doubts about the security of the new system, like Money Box listener Paul Bailey. BAILEY: When you actually put the PIN number into the machine, there’s no security around the machine, so although you only have a four figure number to input, you find that it’s probably visible by people standing either side of you or even some distance away, to be honest. I’m sufficiently unhappy with the level of security really publicising the PIN number that I’m not going to use those until something is improved. Some are better than others, but the general standard seems to be extremely low. LEWIS: Well with me is Sandra Quinn from Apacs, which is responsible for chip and pin. Sandra, the new system starts officially today, but we’re still allowed to sign. Why the delay? QUINN: Well there’s no delay really at all. We’ve been rolling out chip and pin since October 2003 and we always knew that there would be some terminals and some cards not out there by this date. So we’ve always allowed a period of grace, is what we call it, for people to get used to chip and pin and continue signing because the key thing for customers is service and customer service, so both banks and retailers are working hard to ensure we still have that. LEWIS: But when Money Box contacted the top 20 retailers, one hadn’t even started to upgrade, and nine had a long way to go. It’s going to be a long time before they all have machines in every store, isn’t it? QUINN: Our target was to ensure that the top 45 retailers had plans in place by the end of this year, and they all have now plans in place. But obviously some of them are doing that at a different rate of pace than others partly because of their technological position. But they’re all very happy with it, they’re all doing it which is the key thing, to ensure that our cards will be safer in the future. LEWIS: And why aren’t the banks getting their act together? They’ve been preparing for 2 years. Four out of ten cards still don’t have the right chip in them. QUINN: This is a massive project. We’re talking about rolling out 135 million cards to 42 million cardholders. We’ve got 80 million cards out there. We are still short of some people, but throughout this year we’ll have all the cards out there. LEWIS: So some time this year? And will this period of grace, as you call it, last until every shop has a terminal and every bank card has been upgraded? QUINN: Any facility to switch off fall back to signature will be made at a stage when everybody is able to use the system and is comfortable using the system. LEWIS: So when will we absolutely have to know our PIN and not be able to sign any more? QUINN: We haven’t set on a date yet. It works on the basis that when customers don’t need it, that’s when we’ll be switching it off. But what we will make sure is that customers know about that well in advance. LEWIS: And what about the confusion? Peter Williams, smaller shop owners, they told us that they didn’t really know the rules. Some of them seem to think that from today they cannot accept a card if people don’t know their PIN? QUINN: Well that’s obviously not true. Technology will tell Peter’s shop that customers can continue to sign if they don’t know their PIN, so there are no problems there. There’s a really good website on the chip and pin website for retailers, which will give them all that key information. And their bank has been writing to them regularly and should be able to provide them with that information too. LEWIS: And what about security? I mean as our listener Paul Bailey said, everyone can see your PIN when you enter it. You’re supposed to keep that number secret. QUINN: Absolutely, and the first thing you need to realise that without your card knowing that PIN is completely useless to the person behind you in the queue. And what we’ve settled for here is a mix between accessibility and security, so PIN pads are all very different but most of them are on curly wires, so draw them into your body and you can use that to shield your PIN. LEWIS: But most of them have no shields. Anyone can see you do it. Shop assistants, probably CCTV cameras are watching you enter your PIN. All somebody needs to do then is get hold of your card and they can get access to your bank account. QUINN: Well the first thing you’ve got to say is that card fraudsters don’t target individuals in a personal way like that. Organised gangs do other things to get hold of our money. They don’t want to be involved in personal crime in that way, so we shouldn’t worry. The other thing is just keep your PIN secure. Use the flexibility of these machines, draw it into your body, and you’ll have no problems getting used to it. LEWIS: And what if someone does see your PIN and there is a loss as a result? Who is liable? Is it you because you haven’t kept your PIN secret? QUINN: The cardholder shouldn’t worry at all. We’ve got a guarantee under the UK banking code that as cardholders we’re not going to be liable for the fraud as long as we’ve not been negligent, and that involves writing it down as opposed to somebody in the queue seeing you. LEWIS: Sandra Quinn, thank you very much indeed. Now chip and pin is not the only security measure being introduced to cut down on card crime. Three banks are using a computer not only to identify unusual transactions on your card but also to call and check you really did make the purchase. And not a human in sight. Money Box’s Samantha Washington has been finding out more. WASHINGTON: It’s a clever new technology developed by a company called Adeptra. Lloyds, Egg and Halifax Bank of Scotland are already using it and it works like this. If anything unusual appears on your account, you’ll be phoned – not by a person at a call centre but by a computer. Your phone will ring, maybe within minutes of making a purchase, and you’ll hear something like this. MESSAGE: Hello. Please listen to and confirm the following transaction that occurred recently. Today a transaction of £570.00 was approved at a clothes store. WASHINGTON: You’ll be asked to verify your identity by punching your birth date into the keypad on your phone. Then you’ll be asked to confirm transactions which the bank thinks might be suspicious. If you don’t recognise the purchases, you’ll press 3 and be connected straight to your bank’s fraud department. Adeptra’s chief executive, Phil Wilson, told me how his technology helps banks and their customers in the fight against fraud. WILSON: Today banks have call centres that are looking to try and find out about potentially fraudulent activity, but one of the key things they find is often they’re overloaded and unable to be able to reach people in a timely fashion and so one of the key concerns then is your card is being used out there in the big, wide world and no one’s able to contact you. With some of the banks we’re working with currently, they’ve been able to capture up to 40, 50% more fraud earlier in the cycle, which is a key part of it. WASHINGTON: But will people be happy to talk to a computer rather than a person? Phil Wilson says yes. WILSON: What we’ve discovered is people are very comfortable as they get used to this type of technology. We’ve done a lot of market research and we’ve received very, very positive ratings – 90, 95% positive experience. And the parallel I’d probably give you would be 20 years ago when each of us, if we were asked the question how would you get cash from your bank – we’d all wait inside the bank to get some cash from the teller, and yet today all of us go to a computer in the wall and get money from an ATM machine. WASHINGTON: Is he right? Well Money Box asked some Christmas shoppers what they thought? MESSAGE: If you do not recognise this transaction, please press 3 and we will transfer you directly to the next available fraud agent. WASHINGTON: What do you think about that? MALE 1: It’s alright, it’s good. I think this will save a lot of fraud with a Visa card. MALE 2: It sounds legitimate, but I’m not too sure. WASHINGTON: Would you put in your birth date and that kind of information? MALE 2: Definitely. It’s only my birth date, isn’t it? I guess if they’ve got my phone number, they probably know everything about me. FEMALE: We work very hard for our money and no one of us likes to lose it. I don’t think it’s genuine. WASHINGTON: And she’s not alone. The National Consumer Council is also worried that these calls won’t be taken seriously. Suzanne Lace at the NCC is concerned that this could have implications for customers. LACE: We thought the message actually sounded like a scam, so if we’d been contacted, we’d have probably put the phone down. Another fear I have is that if people do put the phone down and don’t respond to these messages, might the banks later on try and pass on their liability for fraud losses onto the consumer by saying that the consumer didn’t cooperate with them and didn’t show reasonable care? We do need to be reassured that consumers won’t be penalised by this. WASHINGTON: Money Box put this concern to the three banks using the system: Lloyds, HBOS and Egg. They wouldn’t be interviewed, but they did tell us they had “no plans to hold customers liable for fraud even if they don’t respond to the calls”. All the banks said they’d received very positive feedback from people who’d experienced Adeptra and told us they were “committed to providing the best possible service”. But if you prefer the human touch, you can opt out of Adeptra. Just let your bank know. LEWIS: Thanks, Samantha. And if you have views about being called by a computer, or indeed about chip and pin, you can have your say on our website: bbc.co.uk/moneybox. Now where should we put our money in 2005? This year the stock market has risen, but modestly. In September, more money came out of ISA’s invested in shares than went in – the first time that’s happened. The reason’s not hard to find. With interest rates up, you’d have got a better return on your money in cash than in shares, especially when charges and commission are taken into account. And of course cash is without risk. House prices though had another good year – if you’ve got one. If you’re trying to buy a home, things got worse with prices up 13 or 16% while wages rose just 4%. So what does 2005 hold? With me is Justin Urquhart Stewart, director of Seven investment management, and Amanda Davidson, financial planning director of IFA’s John Scott and Partners. Justin, what do you think we should do with our money in 2005? URQUHART STEWART: Go back to some of the basic disciplines of investing - remember getting away from the fashion fads that occur just about every single year whether we’ve had you know things like commodities and gold, or whether it was certain types of buy to let and things like that. This year’s fashion is next year’s tank top. I’m afraid it’s an old line but always true. The key of every basic element of investing is first of all carrying out your planning and then that blend of what’s known as asset allocation. There are five primary things we can invest in: property, cash, fixed interest, commodities and shares. The smallest of those five is shares and in the past 5 years one went down and four went up, so you can ask where on earth the money went. LEWIS: Right. Amanda Davidson, do you agree with that? DAVIDSON: No, I think that next year is going to be a good year for shares. But I agree with what Justin says about the latest fad because we did some research on this to show that if you’d invested in the latest fads in ISA’s, you’d have done very poorly over the years. LEWIS: What latest fads? What do you mean? DAVIDSON: Such as technology, for instance, income funds at the wrong time, fixed interest at the wrong time. And they look fashionable at a certain time, but they plummet the next year. LEWIS: But isn’t it because timing is the one thing no one ever gets right or no one can ever get right for the future that asset allocation, as Justin says – spreading your risks, spreading your investment – is vitally important? You seem to be more of the put it all in shares school. DAVIDSON: No, not at all. We believe very much in asset allocation as well because no one can predict exactly what’s going to happen. So it is important to have a spread portfolio, and within that there’s going to be seven asset classes that will perform better at some times and worse at others and that’s why it’s important to have a spread. LEWIS: And how do you do that? What’s the practical way? If you’ve only got a modest amount to save – £20, £100 a month – how do you actually spread it between those different classes, Justin? URQUHART STEWART: Well it’s very difficult to actually carry out individual investments like that. What you have got now is access to the new style of products. They’re called multi-managers, which consist of fund of funds and manager of managers. LEWIS: Just explain what that means. URQUHART STEWART: Basically a fund of funds is where you’ve got one overall fund, which can separate out into different risk profiles from defensive to more aggressive, in which it then invests in lots of other funds. Now that can be a very good idea to spread out your investments and across different asset classes, but beware – you can also get double charging in these as well. LEWIS: Yes, so the funds it spreads it out into, some will be in commercial property, some will be in bonds, some will be in commodities like gold and things like that, some will be in shares? URQUHART STEWART: Well that’s the idea. However, you need to check beforehand actually what they do because I look at most of them and you tend to find that they’re in equities and fixed interest and that’s about it, so you need to actually understand what’s inside these things. But the charges on some of these ones can be absolutely horrendous. However, the good ones are very much better. LEWIS: And why do you think, Amanda, that shares are the place to be? This year you could have earned more in cash, you take no risk and you don’t pay all these charges. DAVIDSON: Well that’s right, but if you believe in growth of businesses over the longer term then investing in equities makes sense. And if you look at any portfolio, such as Justin has been talking about, you will find that there is a good portion that is in equities for the future. LEWIS: Yes, but if you’d put your money in shares 7 years ago, you’d just about have got your money back. DAVIDSON: Well yes if you were in a tracker, although there are of course funds that would have outperformed that over that period of time. LEWIS: Yes, but you didn’t know that in 1997, did you? You know that looking back. But in 1997, you could not have told me which funds would have outperformed the overall index. DAVIDSON: No, but you’ve got to make a judgement at the end of the day as a professional adviser or professional investment manager. Can I say also that I agree with what Justin’s saying about spread because it’s very important within the spread of investments to have markets that don’t correlate, and this is why having equities with commercial property and fixed interest is so very important. LEWIS: They tend to move in different directions at different times, you mean? DAVIDSON: They do. They absolutely do, that’s right. So you actually are reducing the overall risk, an unnecessary risk within a portfolio by having this spread of investments. And any good investment manager should be doing that. LEWIS: I mean I understand the theory of what you’re saying, but for somebody with a modest amount of money to invest, it does all sound a bit complicated. What would you do with £20 a month? URQUHART STEWART: Well the first thing is you actually start saving right at the beginning, as I have to try and do with my daughter - is to try and make sure that when she’s earning any money, before she gets her hands on it, it goes immediately to a deposit account, and just literally automatically transferring that money across. Then when it builds up into a more reasonable sum, then it can start going into a savings plan of some kind. And very unsophisticated products to start with, so that people can start building up. But there’s ever one thing … When you start dealing with sort of more family affairs, there’s one basic line to it. If you’re planning to invest, don’t. Invest in planning. There is no substitute at all to going out and getting some decent financial planning done. Normally the bit we forget doing and we just end up buying the latest fashionable product instead. LEWIS: Yes, that’s easier said than done. And I suppose also we should say if you have debts, pay them off first before you start putting your money at risk trying to get more. URQUHART STEWART: Well absolutely. LEWIS: Of course one of the things many people think is an investment is their house and over the last year we’ve seen house prices up in double digits again. Let’s talk now to Kerry Hanson who’s senior economist at Nationwide. Kerry, property has had another good year – if you’ve got a house that is. HANSON: That’s right. 2004 was a strong year for residential property with prices rising by just under 15%. Although when we’re talking about UK property, we’re obviously talking about a very diverse market and we typically talk about one sort of monthly number or an increase in the year. But we’ve seen strong rises of about sort of 25 to 30% in some Northern regions and in Wales and about 10% in London, so a big disparity. LEWIS: And this is ahead of what you were predicting of course a year ago when I think you were predicting 9%? HANSON: That’s right. The forecast we published in December 2003 was 9%, and the first quarter of 2004 was surprisingly strong and we revised that forecast up to 15% and it’s come out sort of in between the two. LEWIS: Yes. What do you think is going to happen in 2005? HANSON: Our forecast for December 2005 is that prices will have risen in the range of 0 to 5% and probably towards the lower end of that band, maybe around 2%. And what we’ve seen really is that towards the latter end of 2004, the economic backdrop to the housing market has become slightly less favourable. It hasn’t become unfavourable, but we’ve seen five interest rate rises since the middle of 2003 and we’ve seen a year or so of relatively moderate pay growth when you strip out the impact of inflation and tax rises. LEWIS: Well we’ve seen all that before, haven’t we? We’ve seen very modest pay growth in the past and house prices still seem to shoot ahead. Isn’t that just because of supply and demand – there are simply more people wanting somewhere to live than there are actually houses and flats for them to live in? HANSON: Well that’s certainly right. There is this structural demand and supply imbalance in the UK housing market and that’s really the primary reason that we don’t expect prices to fall sharply during 2005. We’re not naïve or stupid enough to say it couldn’t happen, but we just think the most likely out turn is that we’ll see more price growth during 2005. LEWIS: Yes, prediction’s very difficult, isn’t it, especially about the future? But what do you expect on interest rates? Do you expect those to go up? HANSON: We do, we do. We expect one more rate rise – probably in the spring of 2005. But the main picture here for the housing market is really one of relative stability. We’re not talking about large increases from where we are now or large decreases - so whether we get one up or one down the main story for the housing market, I think, is relative stability. LEWIS: And probably an interest rate of around 5% or a base rate of around 5%? HANSON: That’s what we’re expecting. LEWIS: And, Kerry, where do you think the FTSE index, the index of our biggest 100 companies is going to be next year? HANSON: Our planning view is that again the UK economy will be relatively strong and, given that, we’re expecting a moderate rise maybe of sort of 3 or 4% over the year, but nothing too major. LEWIS: So much the same as house prices. Justin? URQUHART STEWART: Yes, I just think that investments next year – again we will have to take an impact of what’s happening in the slowdown in the US economy, the slowing down in China and also the continuing falling US dollar. Although it may rise in the first quarter of next year, I don’t think we should be fooled by this. The UK market itself I think actually is going to be pretty drab stuff. Quite defensive, but we’ve actually worked out what we think is a sort of area where we end up at 4860, so it’s not much further than where we are at now. LEWIS: That’s your prediction for next year – 4860? URQUHART STEWART: Absolutely. LEWIS: Amanda? DAVIDSON: I’m much more optimistic, but then that’s probably my nature. I would say that the FTSE 100, we’re looking at between 5000 and 5200. LEWIS: Right, so what 9, 10%, something like that? DAVIDSON: Something like that. LEWIS: Something like that, okay. Well thank you all very much – Justin Urquhart Stewart of Seven investment management, Amanda Davidson from John Scott and Partners and Kerry Hanson from Nationwide. Now it’s not an investment but buying an original work of art can be fun. And it’s not as expensive as you may think, especially now the Arts Council has introduced a scheme to lend buyers up to £2000 interest free. I went to the New Gallery in Birmingham, one of 250 art retailers taking part in the scheme. Owner Colin Addy showed me what he had on sale. ADDY: We’ve got some very famous artists displayed at the moment – people like Paula Rego – and some less well known artists alongside them: Lisa Henderson, Roger Oakes and Sarah Hayward, etcetera. LEWIS: And Paula Rego’s Peter Pan theme? ADDY: Yes, well for Christmas we thought it would be rather fun to have some of Paula’s wonderful etchings of Peter Pan from her Peter Pan series. We’ve got one here with Wendy sewing back Peter’s shadow, which of course is always an exciting moment. LEWIS: And these are etchings. They’re an edition of 25, so you buy one of those and that’s £650 … ADDY: That’s right. LEWIS: … and that’s a fair price for an etching by a famous artist. ADDY: Absolutely, yes. Paula has been always well collected and currently doing a show at the Tate in London. LEWIS: But even £500 or £700 might be a lot for people to pay out once, but there is now a scheme to help with that. ADDY: Yes, the scheme is called Own Art, which is a scheme that’s been introduced just recently. It enables people to buy a work of art and pay the cost back in 10 equal instalments; and it’s completely interest free, so the price you see on the wall is the price you pay divided by 10 per month. The scheme has been set up by the Arts Council England and is run in conjunction with one of the banks. It’s a good scheme because as soon as the customer takes the piece of art away and the loan has been approved, the artist gets his or her proportion of the money immediately, so that helps with the cash flow of an artist. Of course it’s also very good for the customer because a £500 painting is reduced to 10 payments of £50 a month. LEWIS: Now this is a loan. It’s a loan through a bank, albeit at 0%. Presumably the customers have to have a good credit score in order to get the loan? ADDY: You pretty much have to have or not have a bad credit record and you need to have a UK bank account and an address and a few things like that, but it’s not a very onerous hurdle to get over and almost anybody should be able to get a loan. LEWIS: And does it cover any work of art, or is it only particular kinds of art? ADDY: It covers art in its widest terms, so it covers everything from photography, painting, printing, providing limited editions, sculpture, glasswork, ceramics, etcetera. The only real rule is that the artist has to be living and that really is because we’re trying to promote the arts and the artists. Secondly, the loan has to be a minimum of £100 and a maximum of £2000. You can use it to pay for part of the price of the picture or you can use it to pay for part or all the price of a number of pictures or any other sort of works of art, so you could have some ceramics and a painting to liven up your new house on the scheme. LEWIS: And among all these pictures in the gallery, have you sold any yet under the scheme? ADDY: Yes, we have. In this particular exhibition itself, we’ve sold the one that we’re looking at now. It’s a wonderful etching called Man with Dog and it’s by a Royal Academician named Bill Jacklin. The price is £775 framed and so that works out at £77.50 a month for 10 months. Now that’s been bought by a retired couple who have an interest in dogs and like the scene, and this has probably enabled them to buy it. LEWIS: Colin Addy of New Gallery in Birmingham. And, Samantha, a warning about health costs if you’re travelling to Europe from today. WASHINGTON: Yes, people travelling in any of the countries in the European Union need to complete a form called the E111. That’s to get medical treatment if you have an accident or fall ill. But the system’s changing from today. Any E111 issued before 19th August 2004 is no longer valid and in the future every member of a family needs a separate form. You can pick them up from the Post Office. But remember the form is not a substitute for travel insurance. You should still have that as well. LEWIS: Thanks, Samantha. And that’s it for today. Find out more from the BBC Action Line – 0800 044 044 – and of course our website, bbc.co.uk/moneybox, where you can contact us and listen to the items on the programme again. I’m back on Monday afternoon with our phone-in Money Box Live – this week answering your top money questions. Too late to enter our Christmas Quiz. We’ll be announcing the lucky winner next weekend here on Money Box. Today the producer was Jessica Dunbar, the reporter Samantha Washington. From them and the rest of the Money Box team and of course from me, Paul Lewis, have a Happy New Year. 19