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Saturday, 18 March, 2000, 13:03 GMT
Dilemma for China
Chinese newspapers have underlined the threat of force
Chinese newspapers underline the threat of force
The victory of pro-independence candidate Chen Shui-bian in Taiwan's presidential election would appear to be a nightmare scenario for China.

Beijing regards Taiwan as a renegade province and has warned it will respond with military force if the island takes steps towards independence.

In recent weeks China has unleashed a torrent of vitriol against Mr Chen's Democratic Progressive Party.

In the run up to the polls, Prime Minister Zhu Rongji declared the Chinese were ready to "shed blood" to stop the island splitting away.


Mr Chen
Mr Chen: Keen for talks with Beijing
And he warned Taiwan's voters ''to make the right choice'', saying that otherwise ''they might not have the chance to regret it''.

But our correspondent in Taipei, Jill McGivering, says Beijing's sabre-rattling may have helped hand the presidency to the very candidate it did not want.

You Ying-lung, a DPP campaign strategist, said: "We were not intimidated by Zhu Rongji. Taiwanese do not bend under threats."

Turning point

Mr Chen's victory is a watershed in Taiwan's political history.

It is the first time the ruling Nationalist Party or KMT, in power for the last 50 years, has lost control of the top post.


Lien Chan
China is said to have favoured the KMT's Lien Chan
Mr You told the crowds of supporters gathered in the capital Taipei to await the results that the Taiwanese had "a great, unprecedented victory."

"We have realised our forefathers' dreams for democracy. Taiwan shall have its first peaceful transfer of power," he added.

Trade

The key now will be whether Beijing is prepared to put aside its pre-election rhetoric and take seriously Mr Chen's insistence that he is not planning to declare independence.

Although the DPP has traditionally favoured splitting from China, Mr Chen has turned his back on this policy during the election campaign.

He has said Taiwan will only declare independence if China attacks.


vote
The election race was very close
Mr Chen said on Saturday that better relations with China would be a priority and if Beijing refused to meet him in China, he would be willing to meet in Hong Kong, Singapore, Tokyo, Washington or any other location.

China has in the past held unofficial contacts with the DPP, and Mr Chen has expressed interest in opening direct trade links with the mainland.

This is something China wants, but Taiwan's nationalist KMT governments have always refused.

Washington

Beijing will be looking minutely at everything Mr Chen says in the coming days. His early statements will be crucial in determining the way China responds.

It will also be watching for Washington's reaction.

On the eve of the election, US Defence Secretary William Cohen said if China increased the pressure on Taipei to abandon independence, then that would increase demands in the US Congress for more arms to be supplied to Taiwan.

Shows of military might by China have been a constant backdrop to the elections.

The current tensions were underlined by pictures of troops carrying out amphibious landing exercises in Saturday's Chinese newspapers.

But many analysts do not believe China has the capacity to carry out a full scale invasion of Taiwan and any military tension could cause it massive economic losses.

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See also:

17 Mar 00 | Asia-Pacific
China steps up war of words
16 Mar 00 | Asia-Pacific
'Patience' plea to China
15 Mar 00 | Asia-Pacific
Taiwan's appeal to China's young
15 Mar 00 | Asia-Pacific
China ups pressure on Taiwan
06 Mar 00 | Taiwan Election
Beijing's threats overshadow Taiwan poll
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