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Last Updated: Tuesday, 25 May, 2004, 10:15 GMT 11:15 UK
From 5 to 4 for Wales in Europe

By Guto Thomas
BBC Wales Europe Correspondent

EU flag
Ten new EU countries means Wales loses one MEP
The year 1999 brought more than spectacular millennium celebrations.

It was also the year that everything in Welsh politics changed.

Not only did the Welsh assembly sit for the first time, but there was a fundamental loosening in Labour's grip on both local councils and on Welsh MEPs.

To a large extent the relaxation of Welsh Labour's hold on Europe was explained by a change in the voting system.

But it was also due to a slump in turnout and the party's failure to get its core supporters out.

At the previous European election in 1994, Labour won almost 56% of the Welsh vote, with Plaid Cymru's 17% putting it a distant second.

Euro vote in Wales '99
Labour: 199,690 votes (32%)
Plaid Cymru: 185,235 (29%)
Conservative: 142,631 (23%)
Lib Dem: 51,283 (8%)
UKIP: 19,702 (3%)
Green: 16,146 (2%)
Others: 11,738 (2%)
With Wales then divided into five seats awarded under the traditional first-past-the-post system, Labour also had a clean sweep, sending five MEPs to the European Parliament.

But in 1999 Labour's vote fell to just under 32%, with Plaid, on 29%, breathing down its neck.

And with seats allocated under proportional representation for the first time, Labour had just two MEPs, with Plaid also taking two and the Conservatives one.

This election sees more change. Ten new members of the EU means Britain's seats shrinking from 87 to 78, and Wales' share going from five to four. The wide expectation among psephologists is that Plaid is likely to lose one of its MEPs as a result.

The problem with elections is that by definition people can vote in a different way and for different parties. With five years between European elections, there is considerable scope for change, with various factors - primarily domestic politics - having a bearing on how people will vote.

Political anoraks

The government of the day is often seen to struggle in European elections, with Labour having failed last time to get its core vote out. Iraq and the popularity of Tony Blair could have an influence this time.

So with ten parties contesting this election in Wales, could there be a shock result?
Key Welsh Euro election facts
Wales is one big constituency with four MEPs
Votes are cast for parties, not individuals
Candidates are ranked in order of preference by their parties
Votes won't be counted until Sunday, 13 June, when most other EU members vote
Until 1999, only one Welsh MEP - Tory Beata Brookes - had not been Labour

Never say never, but the odds are stacked against any major upsets.

And what about the voting system? As we go into the second European election with proportional representation, are we more comfortable with it?

Of course, if you asked the person on the mythical Welsh omnibus whether the single transferable vote was a better model than the additional member system then you'd be likely to get one of two responses: a punch on the nose, or a blank horrified stare, followed by a punch on the nose.

On the very odd occasion, though, you might bump into one of those weird political anoraks (like me) who actually think these things matter.

But I'll let you into a secret: it doesn't really matter at all.

Not if you are trying to make up your mind between voting for one party or individual.

Because the voting system, as far as it affects your behaviour at the ballot box, is irrelevant - just as in the past, the party with the most votes will get the most seats.




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