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Last Updated: Saturday, 1 May, 2004, 09:59 GMT 10:59 UK
Will EU migrants 'flood' Wales?
Guto Thomas
Guto Thomas
BBC Wales Europe correspondent

Street scene
Fears of thousands of new immigrants coming into the UK have emerged
As the European Union welcomes 10 new members, the issue of migration has been propelled to the top of the news agenda.

On Tuesday, the Prime Minister announced tough new measures designed to deter people from migrating to the UK unless they can sustain themselves without state support.

BBC Wales' Europe Correspondent Guto Thomas has been looking at some of the myths that surround the debate about migration, and what it means for Wales.

The headlines are familiar by now.

They are all a variation on the same theme - warning of a "huge influx" on its way from the East, that the UK is about to be "swamped" by "shameless spongers", and that the likelihood is that on (or soon after) 1 May, we will be "flooded" by tens if not hundreds of thousands of immigrants.

The British and Welsh tax-payers are portrayed as the unwilling victims - unable to protect themselves from being milked dry by benefit tourists.

passport
Customs are not expecting a wave of migrants

But, certainly as far as Wales is concerned, this would seem to be far fetched.

Just because an extra 70 million or so citizens in the new EU will have the right to live and work here, it does not mean that they are chomping at the bit to leave their own homes and communities.

Moreover, according to Stan Zurek, a Polish research student at Cardiff University, aspiring migrants would be an asset, rather than a drain on resources.

"The core of people who are thinking of emigration . . . are skilled, they speak the language, and so obviously they will bring something positive."

Which is fortunate really, since nearly a third of key workers in the NHS were not born in the UK.

And with an ageing population - living longer than ever before - then it may be that Wales actually needs many more migrant workers.

The reason they won't be drawn to Wales is because we don't have the sort of booming economy that the south east of England does."
Jon Owen Jones, MP

Dylan Iorwerth, Managing Editor of the Welsh-language Golwg Magazine, is one of many who believe that a certain section of the media is using migration to push a political agenda.

"It seems that there is an agenda there - one is just to sell newspapers and one is to stir up fears.

Dr Roger Scully, the Director of the Centre for European Studies at University of Wales, Aberystwyth, is more bullish in his assessment.

"Frankly, I think this is fairly scurrilous scaremongering.

"There was a lot of this sort of thing in 1986 when Spain and Portugal joined.

"The argument was that these were fairly poor Mediterranean countries, and there would be massive migration to the richer European countries - it didn't happen."

Cardiff Central's Labour MP, Jon Owen Jones, argues that the public perception is particularly misplaced, when it comes to Wales as a destination for migrants.

"I don't think they will be drawn to Wales.

"That's unfortunate in one sense, because the reason they won't be drawn to Wales is because we don't have the sort of booming economy that the south east of England does."

Two-way street

Moreover, it is easy to forget that the enlargement of the EU, and the expanded opportunities for migration is a two-way street.

Many of the economies in the East are growing fast, which has already triggered a shift in jobs from the West, including from Wales.

Nothing in the debate on migration is clear-cut - particularly since certain politicians and sections of the media often mix together the very different concepts of migration, illegal immigration, and asylum.

However, it does seem that some people will undoubtedly use their rights to travel to the UK to live and work.

Some may seek to take advantage, but many others will not, and could well make a rich contribution to Welsh life.





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