By David Cowling BBC political research editor

Analysis of the latest polls suggest the Lib Dem goal of overtaking the Tories might no longer be far-fetched

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The ICM/Guardian poll, published on 17 December and sampled between the 13-15th, came as a surprise to many people.

After weeks of wall-to-wall coverage of damaging allegations involving Cherie Blair and the Downing Street press office, Labour's support stood at 41% (1% down on the previous month).

In fact, the Guardian's headline focused not on Labour but on the Conservatives who recorded their lowest level of support (27%) in an ICM poll since November 1998.

And, as if that was not bad enough news, the Conservatives found themselves only 4% ahead of the Liberal Democrats (23%).

Since the 2001 election there have been 36 polls published (conducted either by telephone or face-to-face) giving voting intention figures.

Lib Dem gains

In 27 of them, (some three out of every four) support for the Lib Dems has been at 15% or more and in 13 their support was at 20% or more.

During the same period in the 1997 parliament, the Lib Dems achieved 15% or more support in only 25 out of 57 polls (barely four out of ten) and their highest level of support was 18% in a single poll.

The nightmare for the Tories is that the Lib Dems often pick up support during general election campaigns

In the 2001 general election the Conservatives received 33% of the vote. Yet of the 36 post election polls their support has been below 33% in all but two.

The nightmare for them is that the Lib Dems often pick up support during general election campaigns and if they enter that period with their current poll ratings they could inflict serious damage among leading Conservatives whose seats they have targeted, as well as frustrate any national Conservative challenge to Labour.

Another ICM poll, conducted between 23-25 November, asked respondents which political party they most closely associated with.

About one-in-five (22%) refused to answer or said 'none'.

However, the replies of the remainder provided little comfort for the Conservatives.

Labour domination

Almost as many people associated themselves with the Lib Dems as with the Conservatives.

And if we compare these figures with those for voting intention in the latest ICM/Guardian, we find the difference is that 3% more people intend to vote Labour than associate with them, compared with a difference of 5% for the Lib Dems and 8% for the Conservatives.

These figures are not set in stone. Events may change them.

However, they provide little comfort to those who claim that Labour's decade long hegemony of the polls is about to end.

Party affiliations
Which of the following political parties do you most closely associate yourself with?
	All	Male	Female	18-34 years	35-54 years	55+ years
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Conservative	19	21	17	13	20	24
Labour	38	37	40	43	35	38
Lib Dem	18	16	19	20	17	16
Another party	3	3	2	1	3	4
None	19	20	19	22	22	14
Refused	3	3	3	2	4	4

Source: ICM/Guardian