The East Midlands is classic "Middle England" political territory. It was here that New Labour and Tony Blair in May 1997 benefited from some of the biggest political swings away from John Major's Conservative government.

Labour commands all its surveys across the region. At Westminster, Labour has a 3-1 majority over the Conservatives in the BBC's East Midlands region. Labour has 29 MPs compared to 11 on the Tory benches.

Economically, the region is in transition. Its old traditional industries of coal mining and textiles have declined in importance.

New service sector and information businesses have relocated to the region on the financial back of regeneration funding.

But in parts of Leicestershire, some high profile redundancies might rebound on Labour. In Loughborough, Ladybird Books and the textile manufacturers Coats Viyella blamed the high value of sterling and high interest rates for factory closures.

In the past 15 months, the region's textile and knitting industries have shed 4,000 jobs, 1,000 this year alone.

Falling support

The first polling data to illustrate a dent in the "feel good" factor, came at the end of last year. A NOP/Observer poll revealed the biggest fall in voter support for Tony Blair was in the East Midlands.

Another key regional factor in voter confidence is the possible fallout from the actions of two Nottinghamshire Labour MPs, Fiona Jones and Joe Ashton.

Newark MP Mrs Jones was initially found guilty of falsifying her election expenses and disqualified as a member of parliament, but was cleared on appeal.

Her parliamentary seat is a marginal, but the Newark and Sherwood District Council, which includes the constituency, is strongly held by Labour.

All the council seats are up for election. Labour has 37 councillors, with the Tories as the second biggest group with 10.

But even with a six per cent swing to the Conservatives, it is estimated Labour would lose five seats and still have an overwhelming majority.

In north Nottinghamshire, the Bassetlaw MP, Joe Ashton, has been the tabloids' pin-up of the month since he was exposed visiting a Thai massage parlour in Northampton.

Any voter hostility to Mr Ashton may be a local factor in any Tory revival in this Labour fortress.

Contrasting prospects

Out of the big city councils, there are no elections in Nottingham following last year's unitary status.

In Derby, one third of the seats are being contested.

With Labour having a 33-seat majority over the biggest opposition grouping (the Conservatives have four councillors), there will be no change of control here.

The days when Derby was the 1980s flagship Thatcherite council are a very distant memory.

There is a similar picture in the city of Leicester. Labour also overwhelmingly dominates but the Liberal Democrats are the main opposition grouping and are talking up their prospects.

So which is the council to watch? The political barometer authority is Gedling, a mix of suburban and semi-rural housing north of Nottingham.

The Westminster seat of Gedling was one of Labour's spectacular gains. School teacher Vernon Coaker took the Conservative seat off Andrew Mitchell, one of the then rising stars of John Major's government.